Grains closed mixed on Thursday:

Dec Corn – 2 ¼ cents/bu (5.36 ¾ )

Nov Soybeans – 27 ¾ cents/bu (12.56)

Dec Chi Wheat + 15 ¼ cents/bu (7.25 ½ )

Cdn $ +0.00550 (78.99 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.20/barrel (75.03)

The USDA did not fail to provide some surprises to the grain trade today with their Quarterly Stocks and Wheat Production Reports.  Unfortunately for growers, the corn and soybean numbers were bearish, while the wheat numbers were quite friendly.  Going into the reports, grains were solidly higher, although soybeans had given up much of their early gains.  Once the Quarterly Stocks numbers were released however, the market quickly turned quite negative.

Highlights of the Stocks Report included:

• The USDA indicated corn stocks @ 1.236 billion bushels, higher than the average trade guess by 81 million bushels
• Late year declining exports and lower ethanol production levels were the primary culprits
• The declining demand numbers late in the year will likely have a negative effect on demand figures in the October Crop Report
• 2020 corn production was cut by 71 million bushels due to a cut in acreage and a cut to final yields (171.4 bu/acre)
• Soybeans were the big surprise in the report as stocks were 82 million bushels above the average trade guess
• Soybean demand was largely known through exports and crush, so the increase in stocks came from an increase in 2020 USA bean production
• USDA raised 2020 production by 80.8 million bushels by raising acres to 83.4 million and yield to 51.0 bu/acre
• Total wheat production declined by 51 million bushels, with all classes except durum lower

Earlier this morning, the USDA released their Weekly Export Sales Report with disappointing sales numbers for corn and wheat, and slightly better sales for soybeans.  A highlight in the report was the fact that China purchased a total of 776,000 tonnes of US soybeans last week.  Actual sales results are listed below, in thousands of tonnes:

Midday weather maps suggest better rains in Brazil over the next 10 days.  US crop areas are also expected to see active rains in the coming days, although the 6 to 10 day window looks like it will provide a decent harvest window.

Locally, soybean harvest really picked up over the past 24 hours.  Yields are variable, but anecdotally, it sounds like later planted fields might be yielding a little better overall.  With most elevators carrying more wheat than they historically do, commercial space looks like it will be tight, given the fact that corn harvest will commence as soybean harvest is still happening.  Wanstead Farmers Co-op is excited about having our new Alvinston plant on line very shortly, which will allow that location to receive soybeans and corn simultaneously.  Final touches are now being applied to new elevator.  The Sarnia Terminal is providing some grief as we work through harvest.  Today, Cargill advised all of the commercial trade that they were not accepting commercial deliveries starting tomorrow, presumably because of excess wheat inventories in their terminal.  Hopefully deliveries resume soon………

On the day today, funds were estimated to have sold 3,000 corn contracts (now long 222,000), sold 12,000 soybean contracts (now long 44,000), while buying an estimated 10,000 Chicago wheat contracts (now long 17,000).