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September 24th - Morning Market Commentary

09/24/2021
September 24th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are slightly lower in overnight trading:

Dec Corn -2 cents/bu (5.27 ¼ )

Nov Soybeans – 1 ¼ cents/bu (12.83)

Dec Chi Wheat – 2 ¼ cents/bu (7.15 ½ )

Cdn $ -0.00390 (78.655 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -0.23/barrel (73.06)

Grains have again traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight session.  No major news developments overnight, but we have seen a nice rally this week off of the lows we traded earlier in the week after the sell off on Monday that was caused by potential Chinese economic concerns.  In each of the last seven years, the marketing year low for both corn and soybeans have been hit in either August or September, so many analysts are questioning whether or not our lows for 2021/22 are already in.

Having said that, weather forecasts in both North America and South America are favorable.  For the most part, US Midwest weather looks to be dry, which will significantly accelerate harvest.  Meanwhile, Brazil and Argentina look to get good rains, which will aid in early crop development for their bean and corn crops that are just getting planted.

It is not inconceivable that we see some harvest pressure on prices later today, and early next week.  However, the market is consolidating, and most believe that market dips need to be bought.  With North American projected carryouts still relatively tight for corn, beans, and wheat, the fight for new crop acres is already starting, which is incredibly early for that to happen.

Outside markets are a little weaker this morning, as China’s Evergrande Group missed their 83.5 million dollar debt repayment last night – they now have 30 days to negotiate a deal or default.  This is likely why the US dollar index is stronger today (Loonie weaker) while US equities look to open lower (Dow futures currently down 140 points @ 34,504).

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