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October 5th - Morning Market Commentary

10/05/2021
October 5th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are lower in overnight trading:

Dec Corn – 3 cents/bu (5.37 ¾ )

Nov Soybeans – 1 ¼ cents/bu (12.34 ¼ )

Dec Chi Wheat – 8 cents/bu (7.48 ½ )

Cdn $ -0.00065 (79.415 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.95/barrel (78.57)

Grains have come under pressure, as a lack of export sales announcements has allowed wheat futures to come off of their seven week highs.  Thoughts of the wheat market rally being a little overdone have led to some longs taking profits overnight.  North American wheat carryouts remain tight, and the market will want to ensure that growers plant as much winter wheat as possible, so the market is not likely to fall dramatically until the winter wheat planting window is closed, but profit taking like we are seeing should not come as a surprise after the recent rally.

Corn values have been supported by the strength in wheat, despite the onset of the USA harvest.  Yesterday’s StoneX 2021 yield projections pegged the average US corn yield at 176.6 bu/acre, down from their September estimate of 177.5 bu/acre.  Interesting to note that StoneX raised their Iowa corn yield by 2.0 bu/acre to 201 bu/acre, only a couple of bushels per acre behind the record state yields from 2016/2017.  After the dryness reported throughout the growing season in the western Corn Belt, the Iowa yields in 2021 are pretty impressive!

US Midwest weather was mainly dry yesterday, with more of the same for today, but expectations are for moisture to return to the eastern Corn Belt by the end of the week.

Brazil saw scattered showers yesterday, but all of the Brazilian corn and soybean production zones are expected to get good rains starting this weekend.

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