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Futures

Midday Market Commentary

07/15/2022
Midday Market Commentary

Grains took a tumble at midday:

Sept Corn -4 3/4 cents/bu (6.00 1/2)

Aug Soybeans -13 1/2 cent/bu (14.58 ¾)

Sept Chi Wheat – 21 1/2 cents/bu (7.73 3/4)

Cdn $ +0.00440 (76.72 cents)

WTI Crude Oil + 2.59/barrel (98.37)

The NOPA Crush numbers were released this morning for June. The crush numbers were slightly above the average trade guess, and up 8% from the same month last year. Soyoil stocks were also above the trade guess of 1704 which is up 15% year-over-year.

A couple pop-up storms brought unexpected rainfall to the corn belt overnight. The trade keeps flipping positive-negative based on forecasts, but actual materialized moisture is what we should really be reacting to. Despite some rains, it does not take away from the overall hot-dry sentiment in the U.S. Oklahoma set a new state record with the previous 30 days ending July 10 being the driest for that period in a century. Oklahoma is not a huge corn or soybean state, but nonetheless, it shows that the country could be in some tough weather going forward.

This morning we saw a daily export announcement of 133,000 mt of corn to China for 2022/23. This is the first export sale since June 17th but before we get too excited, it turns out that at 1pm, the USDA RETRACTED this flash sale. Error? – Not sure. Will be interesting to see what happens next week.

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