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May 3rd- Midday Market Commentary

05/03/2021
May 3rd- Midday Market Commentary

Grains are all over the map at midday:

Corn + 6 1/2 cents/bu (July @ 6.79 3/4)

Soybeans -12 3/4 cents/bu (July @ 15.21 1/2)

Chi Wheat -12 cents/bu (July @ 7.22 3/4)

Cdn $ +0.00015 (81.455 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.79/barrel (64.37)

The weekly export inspections report was released this morning for the week ending April 29th and was at the high end of expectations for corn, worse than expected for soybeans, and within expectations for wheat. Marketing year wheat shipments to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 20 million bushels (19 million last week), corn exports exceed the pace by 126 million bushels (99 million last week), and soybeans exceed the pace by 199 million bushels (207 million previous week). Corn export shipments need to average 51.5 million per week through August to hit USDA's current export target. They've actually average 75.9 million over the past 10 weeks. Similarly, weekly soybean export shipments need to average 9.9 million bushels through August to hit USDA's current target. They've averaged 16.4 million the past 10 weeks, but fell to a nearly 5-yr low last week at just 5.3 million bushels.

In Million Bushels

Actual

Estimates

Last Week

10-Week Average

Corn

84.2

43.3-84.6

76.9

72.7

Soybeans

5.3

5.5-11

10.4

18.8

Wheat

18.7

14.7-22

21.4

19.0

This morning, StoneX Brazil also lowered its corn production estimate to 100.25 million mt, down from 105.06 million mt last month, and down from USDA at 109 million mt. This can be primarily attributed to dry weather spanning over most of the central and northern safrinha growing regions. In contrast, the group did however increase its soybean estimate to 135.73 million mt up from 134.03 million mt previously.

This afternoon the U.S. government will give us it’s Weekly Crop Progress Report.  Expectations are big progress last week on both corn and soybean seeding in the Midwest. Some estimates are calling corn planting 45-50% complete and soybeans 30-32% complete.

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