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Futures

May 3rd- Closing Market Commentary

05/03/2021
May 3rd- Closing Market Commentary

Grains are mixed to close:

Corn + 6 1/4 cents/bu (July @ 6.79 1/2)

Soybeans -10 1/4 cents/bu (July @ 15.24)

Chi Wheat -16 3/4 cents/bu (July @ 7.18)

Cdn $ +0.00035 (81.475 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.91/barrel (64.49)

Another rollercoaster day in the grain markets as we started higher and moved lower throughout the day. Corn futures jumped out of the gate this morning hitting highs not seen in a front month contract since 2013, although still closing higher, corn dropped down 7 ¾ cents to close out the day. Soybeans and wheat were lower amid some un-bullish (not completely bearish) stories. The price limits were upped this morning and moved corn from 25 cents/bu to 40 cents/bu, while the daily price limit on soybeans moves from 70 cents/bu to $1.00 per bushel.  Price limits on Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures only move a nickel per bushel higher (from $0.40 to $0.45/bu).  We are in a full blown weather market, so bullish/bearish market moves will be accentuated due to the bigger price limits.

The weekly export inspections report was released this morning for the week ending April 29th and was at the high end of expectations for corn, worse than expected for soybeans, and within expectations for wheat. Marketing year wheat shipments to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 20 million bushels (19 million last week), corn exports exceed the pace by 126 million bushels (99 million last week), and soybeans exceed the pace by 199 million bushels (207 million previous week). Corn export shipments need to average 51.5 million per week through August to hit USDA's current export target. They've actually average 75.9 million over the past 10 weeks. Similarly, weekly soybean export shipments need to average 9.9 million bushels through August to hit USDA's current target. They've averaged 16.4 million the past 10 weeks, but fell to a nearly 5-yr low last week at just 5.3 million bushels.

In Million Bushels

Actual

Estimates

Last Week

10-Week Average

Corn

84.2

43.3-84.6

76.9

72.7

Soybeans

5.3

5.5-11

10.4

18.8

Wheat

18.7

14.7-22

21.4

19.0

This morning, StoneX Brazil also lowered its corn production estimate to 100.25 million mt, down from 105.06 million mt last month, and down from USDA at 109 million mt. This can be primarily attributed to dry weather spanning over most of the central and northern safrinha growing regions. In contrast, the group did however increase its soybean estimate to 135.73 million mt up from 134.03 million mt previously due to some late rains.

This afternoon the U.S. government released it’s Weekly Crop Progress Report.  Corn was shown at 46% planted (17% last week, 48% last year, 36% average), soybean planting was shown at 24% (last week 8%, last year 21%, average 11%), and spring wheat was shown at 49% planted (28% last week, 27% last year. 32% average). Winter wheat condition was shown at 48% good/excellent (49% last week, 55% last year, 54% average). This is a GREAT week of planting progress, as little impediments slowed planting across the continent.

Funds are thought to be mostly sellers with corn expected to have done nothing (long 392,000), soybeans to have sold 10,000 contracts (long 164,000), and wheat is expected to have sold 12,000 contracts (short 7,000). 

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