Weather N/A
Futures

May 3rd - Morning Market Commentary

05/03/2021
May 3rd - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are higher in overnight trading:

Corn + 17 ½ cents/bu (July @ 6.90 ¾ )

Soybeans + 14 cents/bu (July @ 15.48 ¼ )

Chi Wheat + 8 cents/bu (July @ 7.42 ½  )

Cdn $ -0.00085 (81.355 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.21/barrel (63.78)

Grains are higher to start the week, but are well off of their highs set at the start of trading last night.  At one point last evening, corn futures were up 25 cents/bu, soybean futures were up 29 cents/bu, and Chicago wheat futures were up almost 19 cents/bu.

Expect to see extreme volatility in grain prices in the coming weeks.  The dryness in the Brazilian safrinha corn crop and uncertainty over USA 2021 planted acreage/production prospects will keep the market supported, but unfortunately, we will not know the answers to questions surrounding production potential for a long time yet!  In the meantime, today, daily price trading limits for corn and soybeans have been expanded.  The price limit on corn this morning moves from 25 cents/bu to 40 cents/bu, while the daily price limit on soybeans moves from 70 cents/bu to $1.00 per bushel.  Price limits on Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures only move a nickel per bushel higher (from $0.40 to $0.45/bu).  We are in a full blown weather market, so bullish/bearish market moves will be accentuated due to the bigger price limits.

Later today, the USDA will release it’s Weekly Export Inspections Report, and then after the close, the government will give us it’s Weekly Crop Progress Report.  Expectations are for big progress last week on both corn and soybean seeding in the Midwest.

Weekend weather saw scattered shower activity across the USA, with radar showing good rains in the central and eastern Midwest today and tomorrow.  Drier weather should dominate the rest of the week, but extended maps are much wetter in both the 6to 10 and 11 to 15 day windows this morning for much of the Plains and the Corn Belt.  Temperatures look to cool down this week before rebounding to normal levels next week and beyond.

Argentina saw scattered showers last weekend, with more precipitation on tap for the next 10 days.  Brazil remains dry, with little relief seen in the next two weeks for the safrinha corn crop.  On Friday, private analyst Safras & Mercado reduced their estimate for the safrinha crop by 10 million tonnes (down to 70.7 million tonnes).  There will be many private analyst production forecasts released this week for the Brazilian crop, all of which are expected to show significant declines.

Your choice regarding cookies on this site:

We use cookies to optimize site functionality and give you the best possible experience.
Privacy Policy

Your choice regarding cookies on this site:

We use cookies to optimize site functionality and give you the best possible experience.
Privacy Policy