Grains are mixed at midday:
July Corn +1 1/2 cents/bu (7.83)
July Soybeans +28 1/2 cents/bu (16.91 1/4)
July Chi Wheat -34 1/2 cents/bu (11.96 1/4)
CDN $ +0.00395 (78.035 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +0.66/barrel (110.25)
Wheat continues to correct itself as we near pre-Monday (pre-India wheat export ban) levels. Although the initial story was extremely bullish, the exceptions that were announced over the following days slowly eroded the significance of this ban.
The export sales report was released this morning for the week ended May 12th. Results are in thousand tonnes. New crop wheat and old crop soybeans sales were above expectations, while the rest was in line with expectations. Soybeans performance was especially surprising which is helping them grow positive.
Soybeans are also supported today by the edible oil complex as China removed their ban on Canadian canola imports. The demand for edible oils is significant. The soybean markets seem to be ignoring that Indonesia is lifting their palm oil export ban on Monday as that has the potential to flood the market with more edible oil supply.
On the second day of the Kansas Wheat Tour, the average yield was pegged at 37bu/acre, down from 56.7bu/acre last year and down from the 5-year average of 47.1bu/acre.
India cut their wheat harvest estimate to 106.4 million tonnes from their original 111.3 million mt estimate. Most traders think that number should be even smaller (in the 100mt range) due to drought.
Outside commodities are struggling. “The tech sector found some footing for now, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained under significant pressure this morning as Wall Street assesses economic risks going forward as the Fed seeks to tame inflation”.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service released its final summer outlook today. The outlook shows widespread warmth across much of the continuous United States, but with the heat mostly focused over the inter-mountain west for the June, July, and August period. Below normal rainfall is focused on the western High Plains and much of the Pacific Northwest, with some modest risks of below normal rainfall stretching east toward the Mississippi River.
Megan McGrail, Grain Merchandiser
Wanstead Farmers Co-operative
519-845-3301
meganm@wansteadfarmerscoop.com