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May 17th- Midday Market Commentary

05/17/2022

Grains are mixed at midday:

July Corn -9 3/4 cents/bu (7.99 3/4)

July Soybeans + 11 1/4 cents/bu (16.67 3/4)

July Chi Wheat +20 ½ cents/bu (12.68)

CDn $ -0.00065 (77.810 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -1.12/barrel (113.08)

Markets have been quiet this morning, mainly just reacting to the news we have already uncovered regarding the India wheat export ban and the crop progress report.

Although we don’t have many new directly stories impacting the grains, there are a significant amount of residual news pieces that one way or another impact futures prices. Some interesting discussions I have seen on Twitter today include:

  1. There are less than 10 days from the prevented plant date for corn in North Dakota. Currently there are only 4% of corn acres planted in that state. (Bullish Corn?)
  2. India eased their hard export ban, allowing overseas wheat shipments that are awaiting customs clearance, while also allowing exports to continue to Egypt. These exceptions to the ban are having traders’ question just how bullish this wheat news story truly is. (Bullish/Not as Bullish wheat?)
  3. Ukrainian weather is favourable for crop growth, however, despite good potential there are many unanswered questions. Will the crops get the treatments they need for good yields, will the fields be able to get harvested? Where will the grain go once it is harvested? (Corn and Wheat Bullish or Bearish?)
  4. Indonesia has ceased exports of palmoil to cope with high prices domestically which is causing an uproar in the country and putting more pressure of global edible oil stocks. Palmoil stories are linked to the price of soybeans as a result of soyoil. (Bullish soybeans?)
  5. The UN is reportedly negotiating with Russia regarding allowing Ukraine to export grain from its ports and Russia/Belarus could export potash. – apparently talks are not going very well. (Bullish wheat and corn?)
  6. Sweden announced that it has plans to follow Finland and apply for NATO membership. During the cold war, Sweden and Finland acted as a neutral buffer between Russia and the East. By affirming loyalties with NATO, this has potential to upset Russia and further intensify conflict. This has an unknown potential impact on the overall stock market including grains. (Bullish or Bearish everything?)

Lots happening in the world that is shaking out into the prices we are seeing today and factoring into a volatile market.

Later this week we will get the EIA Report, the Wheat Quality Council report from Kansas, and the Weekly Export Sales Report.


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