Grains are mixed to close:

Corn +10 3/4 cents/bu (July @ 6.90 3/4)

Soybeans – 17 1/2 cents/bu (July @ 15.62 1/2)

Chi Wheat – 2 3/4 cents/bu (July @ 6.82 1/2)

Cdn $ +0.00000 (82.605 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -0.09/barrel (69.96)

A positive EIA Report pushed corn higher, while soybean and wheat continue to fall short due to weather (rain coming into the forecast) and tomorrow’s USDA report (funds adjusting their position prior to the release).

The EIA Report was released this morning and showed commercial crude oil stocks decrease 5.2 million barrels to 474 million barrels. Ethanol stocks increased 400,000 barrels to 20 million barrels. Ethanol production increased 33 thousand barrels per day to 1,067 thousand barrels per day (15 month high). This is essentially back to normal, pre-pandemic levels. Estimated corn use for ethanol production in the week ending June 4th totaled 107.8 million bushels, up from 104.5 million the previous week and up from 83.5 million the previous year. Marketing year to date estimated corn use to produce ethanol totals 3.798 billion bushels, up 88 million or 2% from the previous year's pace, and exceeding the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 6 million bushels and growing.

Some tension between China and the U.S. is building as the Chinese Government threatened USA with “consequences” if the country negotiates an economic agreement with Taiwan. China still holds 18 million mt of unshipped U.S. corn, which may be at risk if any business progress is made with Taiwan.  

Trading has been volatile recently, which is typical of a weather market. We should expect more market moves as the summer progresses, and forecasts shift and change.

A new weather story from today is that the heavy rains in the Lower Mississippi Valley left 4 - 10" of rain laying, flooding crops impacting 1% of corn, 2% SRW wheat, and 4% of U.S. soybeans.

Additionally, some rain is expected for the northern U.S. Plains and Canada's Prairies during the next few days, but this is not a “long-term” trend changer. Dryness won’t be long to return to these areas beginning late this weekend and lasting for an extended period of time. (short term bearish, long term bullish)

Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE Report is looming as traders are hoping to see slightly tighter ending stocks, and light production numbers. The trade thinks U.S. corn stocks could come in a bit lower but not too much change seen on soybeans or wheat. U.S. corn/soy production estimates change in June only if something extreme has happened (very late planting, etc.), which is not expected to be the case. Trade is looking for USDA to slash Brazil's corn crop again on Thursday after a 7 million mt drop in May. Average trade guess is 97.3 million mt, down from 102 million mt last month. Drought in Panara is the reason for the declines. Brazil's Conab will also be out with its June forecast early Thursday. In May they pegged the total corn crop at 106.4 million mt, which most thought was too high at the time, and is definitely worse now.

Funds are thought to be mixed today… corn was a buyer, and soybeans and wheat were sellers.