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June 7th- Closing Market Commentary

06/07/2022
June 7th- Closing Market Commentary

Grains are mixed to close:

July Corn + 29 cents/bu (7.28 ¼)

July Soybeans + 29 cents/bu (17.28 1/4)

July Chi Wheat – 20 cents/bu (10.84 1/2)

Cdn $ +0.00295 (79.815 cents)

WTI Crude Oil   +0.91/barrel (119.41)

Corn and soybeans ended higher as weather forecasts (specifically the European Model) anticipate a shift to hot and dry weather. It is also expected that some of the corn market premium was added due to yesterday’s crop progress report. North Dakota showed a 25% increase in corn planting, however, that change may include producer’s intentions changing. If a producer changes his intention from 500 acres of corn to 0 acres, overall state progress could have been throttled forward despite no more acres planted. The corn market’s movement today suggests that many traders may anticipate a good majority of the increase in planting to be attributed to changes in intentions. The real quantity of corn acres lost in North Dakota won’t be known until they are able to do a tour over the next months, but traders can infer until then!

 Soybeans were also supported on rumours of Chinese buying interest. Headlines will be watched closely tomorrow to see if there is any confirmation of flash sales.

Despite yesterday’s Ukrainian pessimism, wheat markets pulled back today as new headlines came to light. Today, the Russians and Turks met to discuss unblocking Ukrainian seaports for exports. Zelensky noted that Ukraine was not invited to sit in on the Russian-Turkish talks on grain exports. Despite no improvements in peace, the potential for once “blocked” grain to come into the markets again improves global supply and takes some premium out of the futures price. Reuters reported that an Ukraine ag official estimates it could take 6 months to demine UA's Black Sea ports if/when blockades are lifted, but in the meantime 🇺🇦 can export a max of 2 mmt of grain per month (typically 6 mmt).

Funds were thought to have been mixed today with corn and beans as buyers, and wheat as a seller. 

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