Grains closed mixed:
July Corn – 22 1/4 cents/bu (7.31 1/4)
July Soybeans +7 cents/bu (16.90 1/4)
July Chi Wheat – 46 1/4 cents/bu (10.41 1/4)
Cdn $ +0.00085 (79.16 cents)
WTI Crude Oil + 0.59/barrel(115.26)
The main headline-mover today continues to be the “improving” export story with Ukraine. It was reported that discussions between Russia and the UN have been occurring regarding the potential to open export channels for Ukrainian grain (mostly corn and wheat). Nothing concrete has come of talks yet, but the market is taking some of the “war premium” out of cereal values. Scott in our office said something I found very thought-provoking about this story: Even if Russia allowed Ukraine to export grain on boats, what ship carrier would want to send their boat and staff? Is it possible that the market is putting too much emphasis on this story?
Corn was under technical pressure today as most active CBOT corn futures fell below the 100-day moving average for the first time since October 28th. CBOT corn traded at its lowest levels since March 29th.
Corn also faced pressure today as most corn in the U.S. is now planted, and traders have shifted to watching weather. June weather forecasts are looking promising for early crop development and growth.
As we flip the calendar into June, the trade begins to look ahead to the next USDA report. On June 10, the USDA will release this month's WASDE report. Historically, this particular supply and demand report gains a lot of market attention as it is usually the first WASDE report of the year that alters yields (although we saw that in the May report this year).
Today, we also heard Reuters report that the Biden administration is likely to raise its 2021 ethanol blending mandate to 13.9 billion gallons, up from its December proposal of 13.32 billion gallons, based on consumption.
This morning we saw a flash sale to China for 132,000mt of soybeans (50% for 2021/22 and 50% for 2022/23). This export demand was enough to keep the soybean market afloat today.
Funds were thought to have been mixed today with corn and wheat as sellers and soybeans as a buyer.
Megan McGrail, Grain Merchandiser
Wanstead Farmers Co-operative
519-845-3301
meganm@wansteadfarmerscoop.com