Grains fell hard this morning:
September Corn -40 cents/bu (5.52/bu) ßLocked Limit Down
Dec Corn -40 cents/bu (5.39 3/4/bu)
Nov Soybeans -92 ½ cents/bu (13.06 1/2/bu)
Sept Chi Wheat -31 cents/bu (6.21 ¾)
Cdn $ -0.00085(80.925 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +1.29/barrel (76.45)
The grain markets opened this morning after over 90 hours being closed (Due to the July 4th Holiday), and fell sharply lower. Lots of weather forecasts shifted more favourable over the weekend, putting some pressure on the commodities, and resulting in huge selling off. USA weather shifted more promising for spring crop development/winter wheat harvest. However, regional production issues still remain in play (NW Corn Belt and Northern Plains remain dry overall), and the Brazilian safrinha corn crop is certainly not getting any bigger. Those dry areas of the northern Plains are forecast to get much needed rains over the next 10 days. Forecasters are suggesting that a weak high pressure ridge over the western part of North America should allow rains to fall in the US Northern Plains, Iowa, and the southern Canadian Prairies this week, with Iowa and southeastern South Dakota expected to be the wettest. Southwest Alberta got some rain over the weekend, with two more waves of precipitation expected for the Canadian spring wheat and canola producing regions over the next week and a half. Long term forecasts continue to show a sizeable high pressure ridge across the western USA, which could bring heat and dryness back to the Midwest in the latter parts of July.
This morning, the USDA released its weekly export inspections report in million bushels. Corn and soybeans were within expectations, while wheat fell short. Overall, the report was nothing to get the market too excited about.
| | Actual | Estimated | Last Week | 10-Week Average |
| Corn | 48.7 | 39.4-59.1 | 40.7 | 69.1 |
| Soybeans | 7.6 | 3.3-11 | 4.1 | 7.7 |
| Wheat | 9.5 | 10.1-18.4 | 10.6 | 18.8 |
Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn yield estimate by 2 bu. to 175.5 bu. per acre this week & his bias is neutral to lower going forward. He says the yield drop stemmed from “ongoing problems in the northwestern Corn Belt–SD, ND, MN & northwestern IA."
Later today, the USDA will release its Weekly Crop Progress Report (4 pm ET). The concern for the markets is whether recent rains will show that the crop improving, rather than declining like it has the past few weeks.