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Futures

January 20th- Closing Market Commentary

01/20/2023
January 20th- Closing Market Commentary

Grains close out the week mixed:

Mar Corn – 1 cents/bu (6.73 1/4)

Mar Soybeans -8 1/4 cents/bu (15.06 1/2)

Mar Chi Wheat +7 cents/bu (7.41 1/2)

Cdn $ +0.00415 (74.760 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +1.22/barrel (81.82)

Markets were fairly quiet today as we close out the short trading week and cruise into the weekend. Since the close of day Tuesday, March beans are down 33 ½ cents, March corn is down 9 cents, and March wheat is down 10 ¼ cents.

Please note, Floyd is out for the next 2 weeks on vacation, so please direct any grain inquiries you might have to me! I will be sharing time between the Wanstead and Alvinston branch, but you can reach me via text or call on my cell (519-328-2623)!

This morning we saw export sales released for the week of January 12th. Old crop corn and wheat exports did better than expected! Japan was the featured buyer of U.S. corn in the week ending Jan. 12 at a net 13.4 million bushels, followed by Mexico at 10.7 million. China was the featured buyer of U.S. soybeans in the week ending Jan. 12 at a net 18.6 million bushels, although 11.5 million of that was a switch from previous sales to unknown destinations. Marketing year to date corn export sales fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 252 million bushels, versus being short by 255 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA's target by 52 million bushels, versus 43 million the previous week. We did see the USDA confirm a flash sale this morning of 220,000 of U.S. soybeans for unknown destinations in 2022/23. Typically, this time of year we see many grain exports shift to South America was they start plugging away at harvest and become the cheapest option. This week was a pleasant surprise to see that the tides have not shifted yet. It was reported that roughly 8% of the soybean crop is Mato Grosso has been harvested thus far, but just a little more than 2% of Brazil's crop as a whole has been harvested.

The drought in Argentina continues to impact their crop with only 3% of the soybeans in good/excellent health compared to 4% last week and 29% last year. Roughly half the crop went into the ground in the last 30 days, so we'll need to see how they respond to good rains over the next 10 days. Forecasts are looking wetter as we slowly start to shift out of the La Nina period. World weather noted that the whole nation could see significant rain by the end of the month. That being said, if we see some moisture and then the trend flips back to hot and dry, the moisture will only go so far. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted that, “If dry weather doesn’t abate by the second quarter, Argentina’s soybean harvest could be the smallest since 2009”.

As of Tuesday, funds were longer than expected for corn and beans, and shorter for wheat. Corn was 27,000 contracts longer at 199,000 contracts, beans were 14,000 contracts longer at 168,000 and wheat was 15,000 contracts shorter at -65,000. Today, funds were thought to have been sellers for corn and beans with 1,000 and 3,000 contracts respectively (long 190,000 and 156,000). Wheat was expected to have been a buyer of 4000 contracts (short 75,000). The week ended Jan. 17 marked money managers' largest round of buying in CBOT soybeans in a year


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