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Futures

February 22nd- Closing Market Commentary

02/22/2021
February 22nd- Closing Market Commentary

Grains are high to close:

Corn + 8 1/4 cents/bu (Mar @ 5.51)

Soybeans +6 1/2 cents/bu (Mar @ 13.83 3/4)

Chi Wheat + 13 1/4 cents/bu (Mar @ 6.64)

Currently:

Cdn $ +0.00030 (79.265 cents) <- Very strong (not good for basis)

WTI Crude Oil +2.45/barrel (61.69)

2 Grower Meetings down, 8 to go! Thanks to our growers who took the time to join us already! If you haven’t yet, there is still time to reserve your spot for our remaining meetings -> https://forms.gle/62cZuGgdCeTAcE629 

-StoneX will be using their expertise to talk about global/USA grain markets

-Floyd will be discussing local grain markets/pricing opportunities

-Megan will be introducing NEW grain pricing alternatives.

Weekly export inspections were released this morning for the week ending February 18th.

In Million Bushels

Actual

Estimates

Last Week

10-Week Average

Corn

48.5

19.7-55.1

51.8

46.1

Soybeans

26.5

11-34.9

33.9

75.0

Wheat

11.9

11-20.2

15.4

14.5

Marketing year wheat export shipments to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 2 million bushels, versus 8 million the previous week. Marketing year corn export shipments to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 54 million bushels, versus being short by 51 million the previous week. Marketing year soybean export shipments to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 354 million bushels, versus 373 million the previous week and 400+ million a few weeks ago.

Soybean harvest progress was pegged at 16% in Brazil as of Friday, up 5 points on the week, but down 18 points from the previous year’s pace. Mato Grosso soybean harvest progress was pegged at 40%, up 10 points on the week, but down 41 points from the previous year. That in turn has slowed planting of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil. Brazil’s beans are significantly cheaper than the US beans, so it is expected that our exports will slow, the farther into South American harvest we get. Soybeans in Mato Grosso Brazil were 35% harvested as of Friday vs. 73% last year and a 5yr avg of 58%. Corn was 36% planted vs. 80% last year and 63% avg. Nationally, soybeans are 15% harvested vs. 31% last year, the slowest pace in 10 years, according to AgRural.

Soybeans are higher as rumours of Chinese interest swirl today.

Wheat is bullish as traders believe that the USDA may lower the US wheat crop ratings due to last weeks cold snap.

Funds are expected to be all buyers with corn expected to have bought 25,000 contracts (long 342,000), soybeans expected to have bought 6,000 contracts (long 145,000), and wheat expected to have bought 12,000 contracts (long 13,000). 

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