Grains close mixed:
Dec Corn – 1 1/4 cents/bu (4.87 1/2)
Nov Soybeans – 4 1/4 cents/bu (12.72 3/4)
Dec Chi Wheat + 3 3/4 cents/bu (5.68 1/2)
Cdn $ -0.00200 (73.020 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +0.41/barrel (89.23)
Like soybean harvest in Lambton, the Midwest showed good harvest progress for soys (AND corn) in last night’s crop progress and conditions report.
This morning, the USDA confirmed the following U.S. export sales for delivery to China in 2023/24 of 220,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat and 265,000 tonnes of soybeans. It seems that the fall in the prices have brought even China back to the table as a bargain buyer.
Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released their October estimate of US corn and bean production, and actually raised overall yields slightly, with corn coming in at 175.5 bu/acre (up half a bushel per acre), and soybeans coming in at 50.4 bushels per acre (up 3/10’s of a bushel per acre). USDA’s September production estimates pegged the corn crop at 173.8 bpa, with soybeans coming in at 50.1 bpa. It will update its production estimate based on actual field sampling and farmer surveys on October 12th. With the current USDA numbers we have, we would be sitting at roughly a 6% carryout to use on soybeans, and a 15% carryout to use on corn. The trade will be looking for any reductions to this USDA ratio, but with mediocre exports and better than expected yields, this may be a pipe dream as we see private estimates like StoneX come up with even bigger values. One silver lining on the demand side of things is that US crush margins remain exceptionally strong seasonally and historically. China also continues to experience a positive crush from either US or Brazil origin. That being said, U.S. processors crushed 169.0 million bu. of soybeans during August, according to USDA, which was 2.6 million bu. less than the average pre-report estimate. Crush dropped 15.8 million bu. (8.5%) from July and 6.1 million bu. (3.5%) from year-ago. The August total brought 2022-23 crush to 2.212 billion bu., 8 million bu. less than USDA’s current forecast.
US dollar strength continues with the dollar index moving into a new high for the recent move and is now trading above 107.
Funds were thought to have been mixed with corn and beans sellers and wheat a buyer.
Megan McGrail, Grain Merchandiser
Wanstead Farmers Co-operative
519-898-2861
meganm@wansteadfarmerscoop.com