Grain markets are mixed to close:
Corn +2 ¾ cents/bu (Sept @ 3.11)
Soybeans -1 ¾ cents/bu (Aug @ 8.82)
Chi Wheat +2 ½ cents/bu (Sept @ 5.10 ¾ )
Cdn $ +0.00355 (75.29 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +0.49/barrel (42.19)
Despite the USDA announcing a flash sale this morning of 192,000mt of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China for the 2020/21 marketing year, soybeans ending the day lower. Even with this strong export sale, soybeans could not rally as the market continued to focus on large carryout potential and positive weather forecasts. The soybean market seems to be moving from a demand story, to a supply driven story.
The EIA Report was released this morning for the week ending July 31st. Crude Commercial Oil Stocks declined 7.4 million barrels from last week to 518.6 million barrels. Fuel ethanol stocks increased by 0.1 million barrels to 20.3 million barrels. Ethanol supply decreased to 931 thousand barrels, down from 958 thousand barrels, and from 1,040 thousand barrels in the same week last year. Ethanol utilized an estimated 93.7 million bushels of corn in the week ending July 31, down from 96.5 million the previous week and 103.7 million in the same week last year. Corn was able to finish over unchanged today, making up a fraction of what was lost in the sharp market decline yesterday.
The U.S. dollar continues to struggle against International currencies including the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar is now trading at some of its highest levels since late February and seems to be completely driven by the USD weakness. This CND strength will continue to have an adverse effect on commodity basis levels.
The Export sales report is due out tomorrow for the week ending July 30th. Estimates are below in thousand tonnes.
| Estimates | Last Week | Last Year |
2019/20 Corn 2020/21 Corn | 100-600 2000-26000 | -29.3 638.7 | 42.6 197.0 |
2019/20 Soybeans 2020/21 Soybeans | 200-550 600-1200 | 257.8 3344.2 | 101.7 318.3 |
2020/21 Wheat | 200-800 | 676.6 | 487.7 |
Funds were thought to be mixed today with corn estimated to have bought 10,000 contracts (short 185,000), soybeans to have sold 3,000 contracts (long 53,000), and Chi. Wheat to have bought 3,000 contracts (short 10,000).