Grains closed higher:
Corn + 19 1/4 cents/bu (May @ 5.79 3/4)
Soybeans + 6 1/2 cents/bu (May @ 14.15 1/4)
Chi Wheat + 12 1/2 cents/bu (May @ 6.28 3/4)
Cdn $ +0.00370 (79.585 cents)
WTI Crude Oil -0.17/barrel (59.60)
Corn was the leader of the grains today, moving higher amid rumours of Chinese buying. This supported a technical rally, that throttled the prices higher due to computer trading.
The USDA released their Weekly Export Sales Report this morning for the week ending April 1st. Overall, the report was below expectations, or on the lower end of expectations. We saw soybean exports slow as South American sales pick up, especially in terms of sales to China. Brazil and Argentina beans are much cheaper than the U.S., and is likely to be the primary choice for exports for the foreseeable future. The cheap cost of the soybeans is resulting in China rolling some soybean sales to new crop which is likely to continue along with cancellations for the next few months. Sales of soybeans currently sit at 2.232 billion bushels (60.5 million mt), which is 99.2% of USDA's full-year forecast. Whether the sales are realized with shipments is the real question now. Corn sales now sit at 2.617 billion bushels which is higher than the USDA’s forecast of 2.6 billion bushels.
| In thousand tonnes | Actual | Expectations | Last Week | Last Year |
| Corn 2020/21 Corn 2021/22 | 757.0 50.0 | 500-900 50-300 | 797.3 60.0 | 1848.9 608.8 |
| Soybeans 2020/21 Soybeans 2021/22 | -92.5 338.6 | 100-400 0-200 | 105.8 131.0 | 523.5 353.4 |
| Wheat 2020/21 Wheat 2021/22 | 82.0 529.9 | 100-500 50-200 | 250.1 81.0 | 258.6 117.4 |
The USDA report comes out tomorrow and is expected to show decreases in projected stocks due to an increase in exports. Estimates for the report are below…I guess we will see if traders are correct!!
China is stated to only be crushing 1.55 million mt of soybeans per week due to the country’s reemergence of ASF in some areas. The country does have an abundance of soybeans coming into their ports, mostly from Brazil, so it is expected that their port storage will fill up quickly. Does that mean that cancellations may be on the horizon?
Conab also released their estimates for Brazilian corn and soybean supply this morning. Soybean production was ratcheted higher, which means that there may be more soybeans to go around come harvest, and there will be a larger amount of beans to supply the market. This is not great for soybeans who are working hard to ration demand and push prices higher.
In contrast, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut Argentina’s 2020/21 soybean crop 1 million tonnes to 43 million tonnes due to dry weather. They did however keep
Forecasts across the plains are very dry, with worries about the effects of the drought on the spring wheat crop. Rain makes grain, and it looks like the U.S. could use a lot! This is pushing wheat higher today!
Funds are estimated to be buyers across the board with corn expected to have bought 30,000 contracts (long 447,000), soybeans to have bought 5,000 contracts (long 165,000), and wheat to have bought 10,000 contracts (long 5,000).