DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/23 11:56
Grains Trending Lower at Midday
Trade is mildly lower across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are flat at midday with the Dow futures up 1
points The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower.
Energies are higher with crude up 0.85. Livestock trade is mixed led by cattle.
Precious metals are mixed with gold 5.00 higher.
Corn trade is 2 cents lower with trade falling back into support levels as
support from soybeans fade. Ethanol margins remain mostly stable with the
sideways action to start the week with the blenders still seeing the most
benefit, with ethanol futures edging lower again this morning. Basis is
expected to be steady to start the week with corn movement slow to start due to
weather. Blizzard conditions will support livestock consumption but warmer
weather is expected again on the backside of the system. Argentine corn
conditions will draw the most short term focus in South American, with over 50%
rated as poor. USDA announced 256,096 metric tons of corn sold to unknown. On
the March chart support is the 50-day at $3.52, with the 20-day at $3.51 below
that which we are below at midday, with the $3.44 low as support below that,
and resistance at the 100-day at $3.58. March futures have been in an 8 1/2
cent trading range for the past 6 weeks.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade in the middle of the
day range after testing lower after buying failed to carry trade through nearby
resistance. Meal is 0.50 to 1.50 lower, with oil up 35 to 45 points reversing
the recent trend. South American weather looks to continue the recent pattern
with more improvement expected in the north later in the week. Basis and carry
remains mostly sideways. The export wire has been quiet to start the week on
soybeans. On the March, support is 50-day at $9.83, and the 200-day at $9.79
which we moved above overnight, with the 100-day at $9.86 above that which we
failed to hold above this morning.
Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents lower at midday with winter wheat falling
back to the recent lows after failing to extend gains yesterday. Warmer weather
should be the rule in the near term, but moisture will likely remain short in
the near term for much of the plains. The dollar remains just above 90 on the
index with the trend still lower, with rallies being sold. The gap between US
and Russian origin has narrowed but remains more favorable to Russia. On the
March Kansas City contract, chart support is the lows at $4.10, with the weekly
low of $4.21 becoming nearby support with the 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving
averages concentrated at $4.30 which we failed at yesterday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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