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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/23 11:56

   Grains Trending Lower at Midday

   Trade is mildly lower across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are flat at midday with the Dow futures up 1 
points  The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 15 lower. 
Energies are higher with crude up 0.85. Livestock trade is mixed led by cattle. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold 5.00 higher. 


   Corn trade is 2 cents lower with trade falling back into support levels as 
support from soybeans fade. Ethanol margins remain mostly stable with the 
sideways action to start the week with the blenders still seeing the most 
benefit, with ethanol futures edging lower again this morning. Basis is 
expected to be steady to start the week with corn movement slow to start due to 
weather. Blizzard conditions will support livestock consumption but warmer 
weather is expected again on the backside of the system. Argentine corn 
conditions will draw the most short term focus in South American, with over 50% 
rated as poor. USDA announced 256,096 metric tons of corn sold to unknown. On 
the March chart support is the 50-day at $3.52, with the 20-day at $3.51 below 
that which we are below at midday, with the $3.44 low as support below that, 
and resistance at the 100-day at $3.58. March futures have been in an 8 1/2 
cent trading range for the past 6 weeks.


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade in the middle of the 
day range after testing lower after buying failed to carry trade through nearby 
resistance. Meal is 0.50 to 1.50 lower, with oil up 35 to 45 points reversing 
the recent trend. South American weather looks to continue the recent pattern 
with more improvement expected in the north later in the week. Basis and carry 
remains mostly sideways. The export wire has been quiet to start the week on 
soybeans. On the March, support is 50-day at $9.83, and the 200-day at $9.79 
which we moved above overnight, with the 100-day at $9.86 above that which we 
failed to hold above this morning.


   Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents lower at midday with winter wheat falling 
back to the recent lows after failing to extend gains yesterday. Warmer weather 
should be the rule in the near term, but moisture will likely remain short in 
the near term for much of the plains. The dollar remains just above 90 on the 
index with the trend still lower, with rallies being sold. The gap between US 
and Russian origin has narrowed but remains more favorable to Russia. On the 
March Kansas City contract, chart support is the lows at $4.10, with the weekly 
low of $4.21 becoming nearby support with the 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving 
averages concentrated at $4.30 which we failed at yesterday.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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