Printable Page Corn News   Return to Menu - Page 1 2 3 4 5 6
 
 
Market Matters Blog           10/12 11:17
DDG Prices Steady
Lockdown: High Water on Upper Mississippi Causes Locks to Close
It's in the Bag: Extra Grain Storage Needed This Crop Year
DDG Prices Slightly Lower 
Southern Minnesota Unable to Catch a Break This Crop Year
DDG Prices Firm 
Union Pacific Announces New Operating Plan; STB Asks for More Details
DDG Prices Slightly Higher
Lack of Pacific Northwest Export Bids Keeping New-Crop Soybean Basis in the 
Cellar
DDG Prices Lower

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Steady

   OMAHA (DTN) -- Distillers dried grains spot prices from the 40 locations DTN 
contacted were mixed, but the average price was steady at $133 per ton versus 
one week ago for the week ended Oct. 11. 

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Oct. 11 was at 101.85%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 42.52%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $4.93, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.59. 

   DDG exporters are currently having problems moving rail cars into Mexico 
because rail lines are congested, which could pressure DDG prices until traffic 
improves. 

   On Oct. 1, the BNSF said in a service advisory that, "Due to congestion at 
the FXE Eagle Pass and El Paso, Texas, interchanges, BNSF has issued a permit 
embargo for all grain, dried distillers grain (DDG), wheat, soybean, soybean 
meal, corn, and corn syrup shipments destined to the FXE at these junctions." 

   In their weekly distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) price update, 
U.S. Grains Council noted, "Merchandisers report that, following a brisk period 
of container buying, the market is relatively quiet as international buyers 
assess their near-term needs. This pause should allow the U.S. river system to 
clear out and more DDGS to move down to the Gulf for export. DDGS prices are 
mixed this week. Prices at the U.S. Gulf fell $1 per metric ton (mt) to 
$183/mt. On average, prices for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia were up 
$4/mt for October delivery."

   River conditions are not likely to improve anytime soon. As of Friday 
morning, the USACE had closed six locks between Lock 16 and Lock 24 on the 
Mississippi River, with the likelihood of two more closures by the weekend. The 
locks are not expected to reopen until sometime between Oct. 18 and Oct. 22. 
The high water has caused the closures after water started to flow over and 
through the lock structures, making it unsafe for tows to pass through. 

   
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/perspectives/blogs/market-matters-blog/
blog-post/2018/10/12/lockdown-high-water-upper-causes 


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION             CURRENT        PREVIOUS   CHANGE
COMPANY   STATE                               10/11/2018      10/4/2018
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
          Missouri            Dry                $145           $145       $0
                              Modified           $75             $75       $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
          Missouri            Dry                $145           $145       $0
                              Wet                $75             $75       $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
          Illinois            Dry                $145           $140       $5
          Indiana             Dry                $132           $132       $0
          Iowa                Dry                $130           $130       $0
          Michigan            Dry                $140           $140       $0
          Minnesota           Dry                $130           $130       $0
          North Dakota        Dry                $130           $130       $0
          New York            Dry                $155           $155       $0
          South Dakota        Dry                $130           $130       $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
          Kansas              Dry                $142           $142       $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
          Indiana             Dry                $126           $128       -$2
          Iowa                Dry                $127           $127       $0
          Michigan            Dry                $134           $139       -$5
          Minnesota           Dry                $130           $130       $0
          Missouri            Dry                $137           $143       -$6
          Ohio                Dry                $135           $135       $0
          South Dakota        Dry                $128           $130       -$2
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
          Kansas              Dry                $132           $135       -$3
                              Wet                $55             $55       $0
          Illinois            Dry                $145           $148       -$3
          Nebraska            Dry                $132           $135       -$3
                              Wet                $55             $55       $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
          Illinois            Dry                $130           $130       $0
          Indiana             Dry                $130           $130       $0
          Iowa                Dry                $125           $125       $0
          Michigan            Dry                $135           $135       $0
          Minnesota           Dry                $125           $125       $0
          Nebraska            Dry                $135           $135       $0
          New York            Dry                $140           $140       $0
          North Dakota        Dry                $140           $140       $0
          Ohio                Dry                $125           $125       $0
          South Dakota        Dry                $125           $125       $0
          Wisconsin           Dry                $130           $130       $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas     (210-345-3362)     (210-345-3362)
          Indiana             Dry                $140           $140       $0
          Iowa                Dry                $125           $130       -$5
          Minnesota           Dry                $130           $135       -$5
          Nebraska            Dry                $135           $135       $0
          Ohio                Dry                $140           $140       $0
          South Dakota        Dry                $125           $125       $0
          California                             $187           $187       $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
          California          Dry                $194           $195       -$1
*Prices listed per ton.
          Weekly Average                         $133           $133       $0
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price:                         Quote Date     Bushel    Short Ton
Corn                                      10/11/2018     $3.6925   $131.88
Soybean Meal                              10/11/2018     $312.80
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price             $133.00
DDG Value Relative to:                                   10/11     10/4
Corn                                                     101.85%   101.33%
Soybean Meal                                             42.52%    43.13%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG                                                      $4.93     $4.93
Soybean Meal                                             $6.59     $6.49
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Lockdown: High Water on Upper Mississippi Causes Locks to Close

   Rain has been relentless the past week across the Upper Midwest, causing 
flash flooding and filling the Mississippi River from St. Paul, Minnesota, down 
to St. Louis, halting barge traffic on the river. 

   This past week, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Rock Island 
District closed locks, starting with Lock 16 near Davenport, Iowa, and all the 
way down river to Lock 24 below Hannibal, Missouri, after water started to flow 
over and through the lock structures. The estimated time to reopen the locks is 
uncertain, but likely not before Oct. 18.

   American Commercial Barge Line reported that Lock 20, north of Quincy, 
Illinois, may have sustained damage after the river topped the lock wall, and 
may not open until Oct. 24 or 25.

   Farther south in St. Louis, the water has risen above 25 feet, causing 
transit only during daylight hours there. That will not change until the river 
falls back below 25 feet. As of midday Thursday, the river had risen to 29.26 
feet above flood stage, with expectations for it to rise to 34.9 feet by Oct. 
14, close to the major flood stage of 35 feet, according to the National 
Weather Service.

   "The October forecast predicts above-average precipitation in all areas of 
the country, with the Midwest and South expected to experience 
well-above-average rain," said Tom Russell, Russell Marine Group. "Concentrated 
heavy rains over the past week has resulted in high-water conditions on the 
Upper Mississippi River from Cairo to Minneapolis and on the Illinois River. 
Areas of both rivers are at or above flood stage."

   While the St. Louis Harbor has reached flood stage, Russell said that the 
harbor is expected to remain open with safety protocols, such as tow size 
restrictions and daylight-only movements. 

   "More rain is expected in the area this week, which will make the situation 
dynamic," he added. "The situation will certainly delay delivery of barges out 
of St. Louis."

   Russell said that the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Rivers are currently in 
good shape without any delays to traffic.

   "Long-term November to December forecasts call for normal precipitation in 
the Northern-tier states and above normal for Midwest and South," said Russell. 
"If rain forecasts hold true, the river systems could remain charged at higher 
stages for the next few months."  

   Should the locks remain closed if high-water conditions continue or if the 
locks become damaged, final dates for barges leaving the Upper Mississippi 
River ahead of the winter closure could become an issue. Nov. 18 is the final 
departure date for barges to leave St. Paul, Minnesota, and pass through MM640 
north of Prairie Du Chien, Wisconsin. As of Nov. 25, all barges must be through 
MM521 south of Dubuque, Iowa.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
It's in the Bag: Extra Grain Storage Needed This Crop Year

   It's not very often you see wheat stored in silo bags in farmers' fields and 
outside elevators in North Dakota. In fact, some farmers and elevators actually 
loaded wheat out of bins and put it in silo bags to make room for their soybean 
harvest because they have lost their new-crop market that normally ships to the 
PNW. Because of the current trade war, the only home for soybeans is either a 
processing plant or heading south to the Gulf or St. Louis. However, that 
market could fill up fast with the added traffic, leaving soybeans homeless.

   Storing any grain in silo bags requires the grain is as dry as possible 
before storing it. While silo bags are sealed, they can leak if there are any 
tears or punctures in the plastic and/or if the bags are stored on wet ground. 
If animals break in to the bags, moisture could get in and spoil the grain.

   It's not just North Dakota looking for extra storage. Elevators and farmers 
in the Midwest have been getting creative in finding storage space such as 
renting empty warehouses, adding concrete slabs, then adding aeration and 
covering the pile. Some farmers are even using machine sheds on the farm. It's 
pretty much the "any port in the storm" theory this year.

   In the case of the farmer, storage costs this crop year will increase. Their 
local elevator may increase the cost of delayed price (DP) contracts, if that 
elevator will even issue one this harvest. A DP contract allows the producer to 
establish a final price at a later date. DP contracts usually have service fees 
based on length of contract, space availability, rail performance and market 
conditions. Once delivery is made to the elevator, title of grain passes to the 
buyer and has no price protection. DP contracts are not considered "storage" or 
issued a warehouse receipt. This contract is also referred to as NPE, no price 
established, or PL, price later.

   A shuttle loader in North Dakota told me he has heard of "some pretty high 
DP charges in southern Minnesota and further, with large drop charges (flat 
fee) of 20 cents per bushel." At his elevator, during harvest, soybeans and 
corn will be cash or basis only, while one of his stations has some room for DP 
at 5 cents per month, but farmers need to call ahead.

   At Sun Prairie Grain in Minot, North Dakota, their website posts a soybean 
DP charge of 8 cents per month with no minimum until July 31, 2019. They also 
offer DP on sunflowers, but of their seven locations, only one location is 
taking any DP at this time. Wheat, corn and all other commodities are cash only.

   Valley Ag Partners, with five locations in western Minnesota near the North 
Dakota border, posts on their website that their storage charge for soybeans is 
a flat fee of 10 cents per bushel and then 5 cents per month after that.

   Minn-Kota Ag Products in Brekenridge, Minnesota, also near the North Dakota 
border with five locations, has posted this on their website:

   "MKAP's 2018 Soybean Storage Program is effective September 10, 2018.

   *10 days free storage from date of delivery.

   *$0.15 minimum charge through December 1, 2018 (flat charge from 10 days 
post-delivery through Dec 1, 2018)

   *$0.07/month after December 1, 2018 until beans are sold

   *For example, beans delivered October 5, 2018 and sold on January 1, 2019 
would have a total storage of $0.22 ($0.15 minimum + $0.07 = $0.22)."

   The Arthur Companies, Arthur, North Dakota, with seven locations in North 
Dakota said this in their harvest letter posted on their website concerning 
soybeans:

   "We have little recourse for (soybean) shipments in the near-term. The Gulf 
market is a possibility, but there is a "wall" of soybeans to get past if we 
want to ship down there, and transportation costs are not conducive for 
favorable sales values (the reason we don't typically ship down there). To 
start harvest we will be running a price-later program for soybeans. We will be 
charging 8-cents/month with no minimum charges. This is higher than our typical 
5-cents/month charges. We want to be as fair as possible. With large futures 
carries, uncertainty of future shipments, a finite amount of bin space, and 
incurred costs of piling and bunkering beans we believe this to be an equitable 
storage program for this fall. If/when the marketplace resets we will readjust 
DP grain programs."

   Farmers need to check with their local elevator before they haul any grain 
in they may want to place on a DP contract, to be sure space is still available.

   FARMERS FACE FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY

   I asked George B. Sinner, senior vice president ag & business banking, 
Cornerstone Bank, Fargo, North Dakota, about the storage situation and 
uncertainty facing farmers this crop year.

   "Regarding storage, my experience is that most lenders will extend operating 
loans based on inventory being stored," said Sinner. "In most cases, the farmer 
will take a CCC loan on farm stored bushels, giving the operating lender some 
comfort that the bushels are there. Most prudent lenders will likely require 
that CCC loan proceeds be used to pay down the operating loan but those same 
lenders will often release some funds for expenses." 

   Sinner said he thinks there will be a great deal of consternation over 
proceeds this year (and next) "as farmers come to realize that there won't be 
enough funds to cover all the bills. I have encouraged our lenders to meet with 
farmers as soon as possible so that we can develop a plan."

   On another note, Sinner pointed out that Dr. Frayne Olson at NDSU Extension 
put together a great spreadsheet to analyze the costs of storage, how much 
"carry in the market" or "rise in the price" the farmer will need to come out 
even. https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/tools

   Sinner said at the conference he attended where Olson spoke, Olson made it 
pretty clear to a group of bankers there are not many options this year and 
storing corn and beans could very likely cost the farmer more money than 
selling now.

   If you look at the current DTN soybean basis map and the daily DTN national 
average soybean basis, you will see soybean basis is at its weakest level in at 
least 11 years. Moreover, since soybean harvest is not in full swing yet due to 
weather delays, that basis could weaken even further as harvest pressure sets 
in and end users get their fill.

   "The long and short is (in my opinion) that today's farmers need 1) A risk 
management plan that fully understands their costs and breakevens; and 2) 
Professional marketing adviser that works with them daily," said Sinner. 

   "Today's farmer could be going into an extended period of low prices where 
best management practices will be the key to survival."

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Slightly Lower 

   OMAHA (DTN) -- Distillers dried grains spot prices from the 40 locations DTN 
contacted were mixed, but on average $1 per ton lower at $133 per ton versus 
one week ago for the week ended Oct. 4. 

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Oct. 4 was at 101.33%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 43.13%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $4.93, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.49. Some 
maintenance shutdowns are keeping supplies in balance with demand so far, and 
prices remain range-bound. Wednesday's EIA report showed weekly ethanol 
production for the week ended Sept. 28 was down from the prior week.

   In their weekly distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) price update, 
U.S. Grains Council noted, "DDGS prices are mixed this week. On average, prices 
for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia were up $3/metric ton (MT) for October 
delivery, with containers to Vietnam seeing the largest increase (+$6/MT). 
Container rates to Japan were steady. DDGS at the Gulf fell $1/MT from last 
week to $185/MT while indications for rail-delivered Pacific Northwest fell 
$3/MT. This week, merchandisers reported a general pickup in demand from Asia, 
with sales reported to Southeast Asian markets Indonesia and Thailand."

   The U.S. Census Bureau said Friday that U.S. exports of DDGS totaled 
1,155,961 MT in August, up 52% from a year ago. Mexico, South Korea, and 
Vietnam were the top three destinations in August, accounting for 35% of the 
total. The first eight months of U.S. DDGS exports were up 9% in 2018 from a 
year ago.


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION       CURRENT     PREVIOUS CHANGE
                                                      9/27/
COMPANY   STATE                         10/4/2018      2018
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
          Missouri         Dry             $145        $145     $0
                           Modified        $75         $75      $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
          Missouri         Dry             $145        $145     $0
                           Wet             $75         $75      $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
          Illinois         Dry             $140        $140     $0
          Indiana          Dry             $132        $132     $0
          Iowa             Dry             $130        $130     $0
          Michigan         Dry             $140        $140     $0
          Minnesota        Dry             $130        $130     $0
          North Dakota     Dry             $130        $130     $0
          New York         Dry             $155        $155     $0
          South Dakota     Dry             $130        $130     $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
          Kansas           Dry             $142        $140     $2
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
          Indiana          Dry             $128        $132    -$4
          Iowa             Dry             $127        $130    -$3
          Michigan         Dry             $139        $142    -$3
          Minnesota        Dry             $130        $132    -$2
          Missouri         Dry             $143        $147    -$4
          Ohio             Dry             $135        $138    -$3
          South Dakota     Dry             $130        $130     $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
          Kansas           Dry             $135        $135     $0
                           Wet             $55         $55      $0
          Illinois         Dry             $148        $148     $0
          Nebraska         Dry             $135        $135     $0
                           Wet             $55         $55      $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
          Illinois         Dry             $130        $130     $0
          Indiana          Dry             $130        $130     $0
          Iowa             Dry             $125        $125     $0
          Michigan         Dry             $135        $130     $5
          Minnesota        Dry             $125        $120     $5
          Nebraska         Dry             $135        $135     $0
          New York         Dry             $140        $140     $0
          North Dakota     Dry             $140        $145    -$5
          Ohio             Dry             $125        $125     $0
          South Dakota     Dry             $125        $125     $0
          Wisconsin        Dry             $130        $125     $5
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
          Indiana          Dry             $135        $135     $0
          Iowa             Dry             $130        $130     $0
          Minnesota        Dry             $130        $130     $0
          Nebraska         Dry             $130        $130     $0
          Ohio             Dry             $135        $135     $0
          South Dakota     Dry             $125        $125     $0
          California                       $187        $187     $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
          California       Dry             $195        $197    -$2
*Prices listed per ton.
          Weekly Average                   $133        $134    -$1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

             VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date   Bushel Short Ton
                            Corn   10/4/2018 $3.6750   $131.25
                    Soybean Meal   10/4/2018 $308.40
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price     $133.00
                      DDG Value Relative to:  10/4     9/27
                                        Corn 101.33%   102.86%
                                Soybean Meal  43.13%    43.48%
                   Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                         DDG   $4.93     $4.96
                                Soybean Meal   $6.49     $6.49
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Southern Minnesota Unable to Catch a Break This Crop Year

   Even though it was three months ago that a state of emergency was announced 
because of weather challenges in Minnesota, conditions haven't changed much as 
of Oct. 1 and are stalling harvest.

   On July 5, Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton signed an Emergency Executive 
Order to proclaim a State of Peacetime Emergency in numerous Minnesota 
communities that were affected by significant torrential rains, flash flooding, 
high winds and tornadoes.

   "Some sections of southwest and southcentral Minnesota and northwest 
Wisconsin have picked up three times the average amount of moisture in the last 
30 days, with southern Minnesota receiving up to three months' worth of rain in 
that timeframe," noted Minneapolis-St. Paul meteorologist Paul Douglas back on 
June 26.

   Strong storms, including 10 tornadoes, moved through southern Minnesota on 
Sept. 20, destroying some farms and crops along the way. On Sept. 21, the 
storms continued with wind gusts of 70 miles per hour reported in Mankato and 
63 mph in Red Wing, with other areas reporting gust above 40 mph, according to 
the National Weather Service.

   In a news column from the University of Minnesota (U of MN) Extension, 
Claire LaCanne, Agriculture Extension Educator in Rice and Steele Counties 
reported recent storm damage in those counties. "The National Weather Service 
(NWS) reports 10 tornadoes struck parts of southeastern Minnesota on Sept. 20 
and that preliminary information indicates Rice County was hit by six 
tornadoes. The storm zone included Waseca, Owatonna, Faribault, Northfield, and 
Cannon Falls, plus surrounding towns.

   "Soybeans are leaning, but look okay in general. They are lodged but holding 
onto their pods. Sweet corn in affected areas was completely lodged and lying 
on the ground. Field corn in the most severely impacted areas was mostly busted 
over, with ears hanging close to the ground."

   According to Shane Bugeja, agriculture extension educator in Blue Earth and 
Le Sueur Counties, "Corn damage included breaking of stalks above the ear (20% 
to 30% of fields observed), with one field near Morristown flattened. Wet, 
low-lying spots also had completely downed corn. Likely this was due to a 
combination of restricted root growth, pathogens, and internal weakening from 
translocation. Soybeans were relatively unscathed, but had a noticeable lean to 
them."

   Liz Stahl from the U of MN Regional Extension Office in Worthington, 
Minnesota, told DTN by email Sept. 28 that, "I do not have a good feel for how 
big the area was where corn and soybeans were blown down. That is another story 
as yield impacts could be significant, depending on if the crop is flattened 
and not able to be harvested, or if it is just lodged and they can still 
combine it." 

   Stahl noted that the recent rains did not really affect yield in most of 
southwest Minnesota and much of south central Minnesota, since areas where 
water ponded had already drowned out earlier in the year. "If wet conditions 
persist and people can't get into the fields before we have a lot of downed 
corn or pod shatter in soybeans that is another story. But fortunately we 
haven't had much rain recently, and hopefully the weather will cooperate so 
harvest can continue. I did see some corn getting combined this morning, so 
that is a good sign." 

   Here is the link to a blog posted on Sept. 26 by the U of MN Extension about 
harvest considerations for storm-damaged corn and soybean: 
http://blog-crop-news.extension.umn.edu/2018/09/harvest-considerations-for-storm
.html#more

   I spoke with some farmers that I had talked to in July when their fields 
were inundated with rain, wondering how things look now after the recent 
onslaught of storms.

   Jerry Demmer, a corn and soybean farmer from Clarks Grove, Minnesota, said, 
"There has been very few fields of beans harvested in our area; there are beans 
that are ready, but the sun needs to stay out for field drying in order for the 
beans to be delivered to the elevator or for bin storage. While that was not my 
picture, there are pockets in the fields here that have standing water waiting 
for the system to catch up from the last 5-inch rain event. So far, there is no 
quality or yield concerns for either crop, but as we continue to have wetter 
conditions, and the later we get, the concern is for stalk quality in corn and 
the potential for wind damage."

   Chad Schmidt, of Alden, Minnesota, told me on Sept. 27 that, "There are a 
couple neighbors starting harvest this afternoon. A couple more will try 
tomorrow if rain stays away. Most beans need another week to mature and dry. 
Still water standing in a few spots. Some corn got hit pretty hard from high 
winds with the storm we had last week. Guessing if beans won't go next week or 
in the next 10 days, we will see corn harvest start on those fields. Lodged 
corn appears to be the worst of the problems right now."

   When I spoke with Lyn Wessel who farms in Watonwan County, Minnesota, at the 
end of June after heavy rains hit, he named his area the "I-90 corridor mega 
swamp." He told me this past week that they had started on soybeans, but his 
corn has large areas drowned out or is "just crap." Wessell said that there is 
a lot of corn in the area going down. Stalks were cannibalized because they ran 
out of nitrogen in July and it was too muddy to apply more even if he wanted to 
do it. (In response to stress, corn plants will mobilize sugars to fill the 
kernels, resulting in reduced sugar content of stalks. This process is referred 
to as stalk cannibalization.)

   "My neighbor combined 140 acres of a 240-acre corn field, tore it up pretty 
bad and quit," said Wessel, adding that he hoped he can do the soybeans until 
it rains.

   "There is a corn crop out there," said Wessel. He said it is impossible to 
estimate his yields, but gave me this estimate. "Best field actual production 
history yield (APH) 220 bushel per acre (bpa) maybe make 170? (Corn) broke off 
pretty bad already, so how much harvest loss? Worst field APH 208 bpa maybe 70 
bpa? Eighty-four acres, about 30 will be zero, another 30 won't make 100 bpa. 

   "Watonwan County average last year was 218 bpa. Whole farm yields of 240 bpa 
common on good ground, best areas of fields were 285. This year maybe 160 bpa 
county average? You tell me how NASS can estimate this mess any better than you 
or I can. So, total disaster? No. Financial disaster? Yes. A consistent high 
yielding area, with very high land rents; profit was gone before we got the 
crop in the ground." Wessel is referring to the fact that the crop was put in 
late and was way behind. He told me at the end of June that, "We have had big 
rains over and over and over again for two months. I've had 19 inches of rain 
since mid-April and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in a 50-mile radius 
who has had less."

   Wessel added, "I've always said if southern Minnesota and northern Iowa was 
one state we'd average just as good of corn as Illinois; but not this year."

   FINANCIAL IMPACT

   Corn or soybeans that have been damaged or drowned out will be devastating 
to farmer's bottom line, as mentioned earlier by Wessel. Besides yield losses, 
damage discounts for mold or other weather-related issues will cause additional 
monetary losses to the farmer. For soybeans, shattering will cause yield 
losses. Shattering, the splitting of pods and loss of seeds, occurs in mature 
beans and increases with repeated cycles of wetting and drying. Prolonged 
wetting due to submersion may amplify shattering losses. 

   "Most farmers I know have drowned out spots this year, and for some, the 
amount is significant. This will drive down average yield (as well as total 
yield) from the field," said Stahl. "As far as the "tariff relief" payments, I 
understand that is based on what you produce this year too, so growers would 
not see anything from these payments where they were not able to produce a 
crop."

   I asked Keith Newman Grain Department Manager for New Vision Co-op in 
Brewster, Minnesota, what he was seeing in his draw area as far as damage and 
crop losses. He told me that, "With the recent storms in the past couple weeks 
we are seeing a lot of lodging in the corn. We are not seeing much sprouting, 
but are seeing some mold in corn that had been hailed on in the last month. Any 
additional heavy wind will cause more damage to the corn. We have some 
producers combining corn right now instead of beans because of the potential 
damage to corn if we have any heavy winds. I'm estimating that 1% to 2% of the 
crop has been zeroed out."

   As for soybeans, he told me that harvest has gotten off to a slow start. 
Newman estimated about 6% of beans have been harvested and less than 1% of 
corn. "The quality of bean is OK, and most beans being harvested right now are 
wet, between 13% and 16% moisture because weather conditions have not given 
beans the opportunity to dry down. Bean yields will vary from 40 bpa to 65 bpa, 
down 10% to 15% from a year ago."    

   I asked him if damage or other discounts may change if a lot of the new crop 
hauled to the elevator has significant damage or is too wet, and he told me 
that, "New Vision's discounts are always subject to change and could 
potentially change if we start to see more damage to crops." 

   Sadly, farmers who experience losses due to the poor 2018 growing season, 
will see another lost year of profits. In a March 27 news release, U of MN 
Extension reported that Minnesota farm income took another dip in 2017. "For 
the third consecutive year, Minnesota farmers produced bumper crops of 
Minnesota's primary cash crops, corn and soybeans. But, as has been the case 
each year, high yields did not produce high profits. The median crop farm 
earned $23,722, down from $46,831 in 2016." 

   See more on farm incomes at 
https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/farm-incomes-take-another-dip-2017

   The news release also noted that "crop farmers are a little more optimistic 
about this next year (2018 crop)." Apparently, Mother Nature didn't get the 
message.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Firm 

   OMAHA (DTN) -- Distillers dried grains spot prices from the 40 locations DTN 
contacted were mixed, but on average, were $1 per ton higher versus one week 
ago at $134 per ton for the week ended Sept. 27. 

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Sept. 27 was at 102.86%. The value of DDG relative 
to soybean meal was at 43.48%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $4.96, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.49.

   DDG spot prices were mixed this week, but slightly higher on average as 
higher corn and soymeal prices supported the market. Wednesday's Energy 
Information Administration report showed ethanol plant production declined 4% 
last week, helping to keep DDG supplies in line with the demand.

   In its weekly distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) price update, 
U.S. Grains Council noted, "On average, DDGS prices for 40-foot containers to 
Southeast Asia fell $1/metric ton (MT) for October delivery. Containers to 
Vietnam fell $3/MT and DDGS at the Gulf fell $4/MT from last week to $186/MT. 
International demand is expected to eventually push DDGS values upwards, 
following corn futures."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION                 CURRENT         PREVIOUS      CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                                  9/27/2018        9/20/2018
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri               Dry                $145            $140          $5
                                  Modified           $75              $73          $2
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
           Missouri               Dry                $145            $130          $15
                                  Wet                $75              $70          $5
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois               Dry                $140            $140          $0
           Indiana                Dry                $132            $132          $0
           Iowa                   Dry                $130            $130          $0
           Michigan               Dry                $140            $140          $0
           Minnesota              Dry                $130            $130          $0
           North Dakota           Dry                $130            $130          $0
           New York               Dry                $155            $155          $0
           South Dakota           Dry                $130            $130          $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas                 Dry                $140            $140          $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana                Dry                $132            $135          -$3
           Iowa                   Dry                $130            $130          $0
           Michigan               Dry                $142            $142          $0
           Minnesota              Dry                $132            $130          $2
           Missouri               Dry                $147            $150          -$3
           Ohio                   Dry                $138            $140          -$2
           South Dakota           Dry                $130            $130          $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas                 Dry                $135            $130          $5
                                  Wet                $55              $40          $15
           Illinois               Dry                $148            $147          $1
           Nebraska               Dry                $135            $130          $5
                                  Wet                $55              $40          $15
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois               Dry                $130            $130          $0
           Indiana                Dry                $130            $127          $3
           Iowa                   Dry                $125            $125          $0
           Michigan               Dry                $130            $130          $0
           Minnesota              Dry                $120            $120          $0
           Nebraska               Dry                $135            $135          $0
           New York               Dry                $140            $140          $0
           North Dakota           Dry                $145            $145          $0
           Ohio                   Dry                $125            $130          -$5
           South Dakota           Dry                $125            $130          -$5
           Wisconsin              Dry                $125            $130          -$5
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas          (210-345-3362)   (210-345-3362)
           Indiana                Dry                $135            $135          $0
           Iowa                   Dry                $130            $125          $5
           Minnesota              Dry                $130            $120          $10
           Nebraska               Dry                $130            $130          $0
           Ohio                   Dry                $135            $140          -$5
           South Dakota           Dry                $125            $125          $0
           California                                $187            $185          $2
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California             Dry                $197            $192          $5
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                            $134            $133          $1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                        Settlement Price:  Quote Date       Bushel  Short Ton
                                     Corn    9/27/2018     $3.6475     $130.27
                             Soybean Meal    9/27/2018     $308.20
            DDG Weekly Average Spot Price      $134.00
                                DDG Value Relative to:    9/27        9/20
                                                  Corn     102.86%     105.64%
                                          Soybean Meal      43.48%      42.71%
                             Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                   DDG       $4.96       $4.93
                                          Soybean Meal       $6.49       $6.56
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Union Pacific Announces New Operating Plan; STB Asks for More Details

   Union Pacific (UP) has announced a new operating plan to implement Precision 
Scheduled Railroading principles. Soon after, the U.S. Surface Transportation 
Board wrote a letter to UP requesting weekly phone calls about the 
implementation of its operating changes and any impacts to its customers and 
others.

   "Unified Plan 2020 will launch Oct. 1 and will be rolled out in phases 
across the entire Union Pacific (UP) rail network," UP said on its website 
Sept. 17. "Effective Oct. 1, 2018, this plan will combine Precision Scheduled 
Railroading principles with our UP Way best practices by involving our 
employees closest to the work, taking a thoughtful and deliberate approach to 
phasing in the roll out, and communicating thoroughly with you, our customers. 
By fundamentally shifting our focus from moving trains to moving cars, we will 
be better able to place an emphasis on reducing car dwell," said UP.

   The company said under the new plan Union Pacific customers can expect to 
see:

   -- More reliable and predictable service offerings 

   -- Improved availability of crews and locomotives 

   -- Potential for improved customer asset utilization 

   -- Direct communication in advance of changes.

   UP said that this plan will first be implemented on its North/South 
corridor, creating more streamlined operations from Wisconsin to Texas. 
"Further roll out will occur in phases with initial implementation across the 
entire rail network expected by 2020. We will closely monitor the impact of 
these changes to align our strategy with our overall goals to improve network 
performance and provide the reliable service you have come to expect," added UP.

   Three days later, on Sept. 20, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) sent a 
letter to UP, asking for weekly conference calls for briefings with UP senior 
management on the carrier's plan to implement its version of the precision 
scheduled railroading, an operating plan made popular by the late railroad CEO 
E. Hunter Harrison.

   In the letter to UP, the STB said "We are well aware of UP's service 
challenges this year and believe that it is essential that all carriers strive 
to provide efficient and reliable service to their customers."

   The STB reminded UP in the letter that the CSX Transportation, Inc. (CSX) 
last year experienced serious service disruptions for its customers, and for 
other railroads as well, when CSX implemented the same program. "In light of 
those events, we trust that the UP will work in a transparent manner to avoid 
similar disruptions in the nation's rail system," said the STB.

   The STB asked UP to keep the Board fully informed about the implementation 
of its operating changes and any impacts to its customers and others and to 
begin holding weekly phone calls with the staff from the Board's Rail Customer 
and Public assistance office. The letter also noted that UP Executive Vice 
President Kenny Rocker will meet with Chairman Ann Begeman and Vice Chairman 
Deb Miller and agency staff in October to provide more detailed information on 
UP's planned operating changes.

   In response to the STB letter, UP said that it is "happy to accommodate the 
request of weekly calls" and added the company has already started scheduling 
the calls.

   The National Grain and Feed Association noted, in a Sept. 21 press release, 
that UP said its "version" of precision scheduled railroading (which Harrison 
implemented at the Illinois Central, Canadian National, Canadian Pacific and 
CSX during his respective tenures as their CEO) will consist of:  

   1) Shifting the focus of operations from moving trains to moving cars 

   2) Minimizing car dwell times, car classification events and locomotive 
power requirements 

   3) Utilizing general-purpose trains by "blending" existing train services

   4) "Balancing" train movements to improve utilization of crews and rail 
assets.

   NGFA President Randy Gordon commended the STB for its enhanced monitoring of 
UP and said NGFA will follow up with the agency on ways NGFA can continue to 
relay "ground-truth information" from its members on UP's service performance 
as it implements precision scheduled railroading.

   (To read about the issues affecting the performance of the CSX after it 
implemented precision scheduled railroading, here is the link to the DTN blog 
on it from Aug. 28, 2017: 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/perspectives/blogs/market-matters-blog/
blog-post/2017/08/28/transportation-board-csx-get-service)

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Slightly Higher

   OMAHA (DTN) -- Distillers dried grains spot prices from the 40 locations DTN 
contacted were mixed, but on average, were $1 per ton higher versus one week 
ago at $133 per ton for the week ended Sept. 20. 

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Sept. 20 was at 105.64%. The value of DDG relative 
to soybean meal was at 42.71%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $4.93, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.56.

   DDG prices were under pressure earlier this week as corn prices continued 
last week's trend lower, but Thursday's near-7-cent recovery in the futures did 
take some of the pressure off DDG prices in some areas. DDG supplies remain 
plentiful as ethanol plant production increased last week. The EIA on Wednesday 
showed a higher-than-expected plant production increase last week, while market 
discussions pointed to thinning margins that have prompted some plants to 
consider reducing plant run rates.

   In its weekly distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) price update, the 
U.S. Grains Council noted, "DDGS export prices were generally down across the 
board. A continued pickup in interest from international buyers is being 
reported as prices are nearing the market's bottom. On average, prices for 
40-foot containers to Southeast Asia fell $4/metric tons (MT) for October; FOB 
Gulf indications and U.S. rail rates were down as well."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION             CURRENT        PREVIOUS   CHANGE
COMPANY   STATE                               9/20/2018       9/13/2018
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
          Missouri            Dry                $140           $145       -$5
                              Modified           $73             $75       -$2
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
          Missouri            Dry                $130           $140      -$10
                              Wet                $70             $75       -$5
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
          Illinois            Dry                $140           $142       -$2
          Indiana             Dry                $132           $135       -$3
          Iowa                Dry                $130           $135       -$5
          Michigan            Dry                $140           $142       -$2
          Minnesota           Dry                $130           $130       $0
          North Dakota        Dry                $130           $125       $5
          New York            Dry                $155           $162       -$7
          South Dakota        Dry                $130           $125       $5
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
          Kansas              Dry                $140           $140       $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
          Indiana             Dry                $135           $136       -$1
          Iowa                Dry                $130           $135       -$5
          Michigan            Dry                $142           $142       $0
          Minnesota           Dry                $130           $132       -$2
          Missouri            Dry                $150           $151       -$1
          Ohio                Dry                $140           $144       -$4
          South Dakota        Dry                $130           $135       -$5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
          Kansas              Dry                $130           $130       $0
                              Wet                $40             $40       $0
          Illinois            Dry                $147           $147       $0
          Nebraska            Dry                $130           $130       $0
                              Wet                $40             $40       $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
          Illinois            Dry                $130           $130       $0
          Indiana             Dry                $127           $127       $0
          Iowa                Dry                $125           $125       $0
          Michigan            Dry                $130           $130       $0
          Minnesota           Dry                $120           $120       $0
          Nebraska            Dry                $135           $135       $0
          New York            Dry                $140           $140       $0
          North Dakota        Dry                $145           $130       $15
          Ohio                Dry                $130           $130       $0
          South Dakota        Dry                $130           $120       $10
          Wisconsin           Dry                $130           $130       $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas     (210-345-3362)     (210-345-3362)
          Indiana             Dry                $135           $125       $10
          Iowa                Dry                $125           $115       $10
          Minnesota           Dry                $120           $120       $0
          Nebraska            Dry                $130           $135       -$5
          Ohio                Dry                $140           $135       $5
          South Dakota        Dry                $125           $120       $5
          California                             $185           $185       $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
          California          Dry                $192           $200       -$8
*Prices listed per ton.
          Weekly Average                         $133           $132       $1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price:                         Quote Date     Bushel    Short Ton
Corn                                      9/20/2018      $3.5250   $125.89
Soybean Meal                              9/20/2018      $311.40
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price             $133.00
DDG Value Relative to:                                   9/20      9/13
Corn                                                     105.64%   109.91%
Soybean Meal                                             42.71%    42.40%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG                                                      $4.93     $4.89
Soybean Meal                                             $6.56     $6.55
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Lack of Pacific Northwest Export Bids Keeping New-Crop Soybean Basis in the 
Cellar

   The trade war between the U.S. and China has now gone on for over two 
months, and while recent reports say there are expectations for another meeting 
"soon," between the two countries, no meeting has been officially announced. 
Now, with President Donald Trump planning to impose new tariffs on about $200 
billion of Chinese imports this week, that meeting may not happen. Still, there 
are many who believe that China will have to come back for U.S. soybeans 
regardless of any resolutions. 

   But not so fast. 

   Red River Farm Network reported on July 12 that a key China National 
Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) official said in an interview 
with China's state-run newspaper, that China will be able to replace U.S. 
soybean exports with alternative sources. That includes an increase in business 
with Brazil and Argentina. The senior COFCO official also said China can buy 
more soybean meal, sunflowers and sunflower meal, canola and canola meal and 
fish meal to fill its needs. COFCO is one of China's state-owned 
food-processing holding companies. 

   It's clear that Pacific Northwest (PNW) exporters have no expectations for 
China business. Since mid-June, as the trade war talks heated up, PNW export 
bids disappeared -- not just for harvest time, but also for the first quarter 
of 2019. An exporter recently told me that any pre-contracted soybean sales had 
been shifted to other destinations.

   Frayne Olson, a crops economist/marketing specialist at North Dakota State 
University, said, "We have missed our peak sale season for new-crop soybeans, 
as PNW exporters will book October, November, December shipments in July, 
August and September." 

   Olson said that, even if the China tariffs "went away" in the near future, 
"It would take at least three months, if everything works perfectly, to get 
soybeans efficiently moving in to the PNW export channel." Olson said he has 
told the farmers he has spoken to at various meetings that they need to 
"prepare to store this year's soybean crop until at least mid-summer 2019."

   I reached out to a few elevators in North Dakota and was told that some 
exporters on the PNW have been asking elevators to roll September-October 
shuttle sales to December-January, while others just want to buy the contracts 
back. I was also told that country elevator bids will continue to vary widely 
based on what positions the elevator is in. One elevator manager said he was 
unaware of anyone at "no bid" except possibly some non-shuttle elevators.

   Without the PNW market, the market for North Dakota right now is mainly at 
the Gulf. However, Gulf- and St. Louis-delivered shuttle markets are at a 
negative basis, record lows for October, reflecting farm bids in North Dakota 
in the negative $1.80s. A shipper told me that it feels like the wide country 
October basis levels could easily push forward into November-December, and 
maybe further, without China. Friday's cost, insurance and freight (CIF) Gulf 
basis was at a seasonal low of -8X (November futures), and the rail bid 
delivered to St. Louis was -68X. 

   Just recently, BNSF Railway extended the temporary rates out of North Dakota 
to St. Louis through March. Nevertheless, as the Northern Plains soybeans flow 
to those destinations, traffic will likely become congested, probably causing 
those markets to go to no bid or even cheaper bids if they fill up.

   Olson told me that, if soybeans make a mad dash for the Gulf, it could turn 
into a "no room at the inn" scenario. "We can only push so many soybeans into 
the pipeline at a time," he said. 

   Keith Brandt, general manager of Plains Grain and Agronomy LLC in Enderlin, 
North Dakota, said, "We have been telling our growers for a long time that our 
space for soybeans this fall was going to be limited. We will take the 
contracted soybeans, but beyond that, there is no guarantee. We will have some 
space now for price later, but it won't get us through harvest. Once that 
price-later space is filled, it's cash or basis fixed. However, farmers have 
done a good job of making space at home for those extra beans."

   Brandt said that a good carry in the market is a big help. "Local processors 
have a better basis, but there is a long wait in lines, and $7.00 beans isn't 
friendly to the farmer." 

   "It will be just another chapter in the book for another harvest," added 
Brandt.

   Cory Tryan, manager of the grain department and logistics at Alton Grain 
Terminal LLC in Hillsboro, North Dakota, said: "Bean harvest has started, but 
at a slow pace for deliveries against contracts, some are binning the early dry 
stuff (9-11% moistures) on farm in case we get wet. Most of the beans are too 
green yet, but we could see harvest pick up around the 20th (of September). The 
first beans coming off are lower 40s (bushels per acre), on average, or around 
5 bushels per acre better than projected after the heat and lack of rain late 
July and first half August. So far, this is a couple of bushels over an average 
year's crop."

   Tryan said that pre-contracted beans will still come to town; however, most 
of the overrun will have to be stored on farm. The options to do this include 
older bins, buildings, newly added bins and more bags. The last choice would be 
to pile beans on the ground. 

   Piling soybeans is a big risk and could degrade the oil in their seeds, 
which is a crucial part of their value. Also, because of that oil, piled 
soybeans could rot faster. 

   Ken Hellevang, an NDSU Extension grain management specialist, told the 
Bismarck Tribune in August that farmers shouldn't store soybeans in exposed 
piles. "A 1-inch rain can spoil the top 2 to 3 feet on a pile, which is 
'devastating' in most farm operations," Hellevang told the Bismarck Tribune. 
"Storing grain in silo bags on the ground is preferable to exposed piles, but 
the beans first should be dried to 11% moisture. Drying beans will reduce 
pounds for sale by roughly 2% and can cause breakage. The bags aren't aerated 
and moisture can collect and move in them."

   One shuttle loader told me that soybeans are in "new territory" for everyone 
involved on both ends of the supply chain. Each has different positions and 
space to manage their risks, which are much higher this year at every stop 
along the chain for the harvest window.

   CAN CORN SAVE THE DAY?

   Olson said that, for now, corn would replace the normal harvest flow of 
soybeans to the PNW from North Dakota and other Northern states that typically 
ship harvest beans west. 

   The PNW supplies corn buyers in Japan on a regular schedule and also 
supplies South Korea and the Philippines. Still, posted corn basis bids for 
delivery to the PNW have been slipping lower ahead of harvest, with 
expectations that more corn will move there due to the lack of soybean bids. 
Friday's basis for BNSF shuttles delivered to the PNW was at +65Z/+70Z for 
October. Similar to the Gulf and St. Louis for soybeans, if the PNW market gets 
flooded with corn, that basis could drop as well or limit delivery time. 

   Other shuttle loaders in North and South Dakota agree that corn will be the 
main commodity shipped at harvest in order to keep space open for beans on the 
farm and at the elevator.

   "Our farmers will lean on us for dumping their corn, and we will pile corn," 
said Brandt. "The basis isn't too bad for corn, and freight should be available 
so that we can ship corn at harvest and not get too upside down."

   As of Friday, BNSF secondary shuttle freight bids for September and October 
were at no bid and offers were at -$100 per car under tariff, prices unheard of 
as harvest nears but good for shippers who need freight.

   Nevertheless, do not forget the one red light that is suddenly flashing: 
USDA recently forecast a record U.S. corn yield of 181.3 bpa, with production 
totaling 14.8 billion bushels. If that forecast comes true, we will have more 
corn than homes available for it at harvest and well in to next year.

   Stay tuned. This story is far from over.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DDG Prices Lower

   OMAHA (DTN) -- Distillers dried grains spot prices from the 40 locations DTN 
contacted were mixed, but on average were $2 per ton lower versus one week ago 
at $132 per ton for the week ended Sept. 13. 

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Sept. 13 was at 109.91%. The value of DDG relative 
to soybean meal was at 42.40%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $4.89, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.55.

   DDG and all corn byproduct feed prices came under pressure Wednesday after 
the December corn futures lost 14 cents in the front month thanks to USDA 
predicting a record crop, way above market expectations. DDG supplies are still 
in good shape even after a slowdown in ethanol production last week. EIA said 
plant production slid 67,000 bpd to 1.020 million bpd during the week ended 
Sept. 7, 2.6% lower than the corresponding week in 2017.

   In its weekly DDGS price update, the U.S. Grains Council noted, "DDGS prices 
were generally down across the board; FOB Gulf indications fell $3/mt while 
container rates to Southeast Asia fell $4/mt on average. Prices fell for 
40-foot containers to Vietnam (-$5/mt), Thailand (-$3/mt) and Indonesia 
(-$3/mt); in turn, merchandisers report a flurry of buying activity in those 
markets. Finally, USDA reported that exports of U.S. DDGS are up 2.2% 
year-over-year in 2017/2018 to 10.5 mmt."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION              CURRENT        PREVIOUS  CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                               9/13/2018       9/6/2018
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri            Dry                $145           $155     -$10
                               Modified           $75            $78       -$3
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
           Missouri            Dry                $140           $150     -$10
                               Wet                $75            $83       -$8
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois            Dry                $142           $145      -$3
           Indiana             Dry                $135           $140      -$5
           Iowa                Dry                $135           $135      $0
           Michigan            Dry                $142           $140      $2
           Minnesota           Dry                $130           $125      $5
           North Dakota        Dry                $125           $125      $0
           New York            Dry                $162           $160      $2
           South Dakota        Dry                $125           $125      $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas              Dry                $140           $145      -$5
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana             Dry                $136           $134      $2
           Iowa                Dry                $135           $135      $0
           Michigan            Dry                $142           $138      $4
           Minnesota           Dry                $132           $130      $2
           Missouri            Dry                $151           $151      $0
           Ohio                Dry                $144           $142      $2
           South Dakota        Dry                $135           $135      $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas              Dry                $130           $135      -$5
                               Wet                $40            $45       -$5
           Illinois            Dry                $147           $150      -$3
           Nebraska            Dry                $130           $135      -$5
                               Wet                $40            $45       -$5
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois            Dry                $130           $130      $0
           Indiana             Dry                $127           $127      $0
           Iowa                Dry                $125           $125      $0
           Michigan            Dry                $130           $130      $0
           Minnesota           Dry                $120           $120      $0
           Nebraska            Dry                $135           $135      $0
           New York            Dry                $140           $140      $0
           North Dakota        Dry                $130           $130      $0
           Ohio                Dry                $130           $130      $0
           South Dakota        Dry                $120           $120      $0
           Wisconsin           Dry                $130           $130      $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas      (210-345-3362)     (210-345-3362)
           Indiana             Dry                $125           $130      -$5
           Iowa                Dry                $115           $120      -$5
           Minnesota           Dry                $120           $125      -$5
           Nebraska            Dry                $135           $140      -$5
           Ohio                Dry                $135           $140      -$5
           South Dakota        Dry                $120           $125      -$5
           California                             $185           $190      -$5
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California          Dry                $200           $205      -$5
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                         $132           $134      -$2
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


             VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date   Bushel Short Ton
                            Corn   9/13/2018 $3.3625   $120.09
                    Soybean Meal   9/13/2018 $311.30
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price     $132.00
                      DDG Value Relative to:  9/13      9/6
                                        Corn 109.91%   106.14%
                                Soybean Meal  42.40%    43.09%
                   Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                         DDG   $4.89     $4.96
                                Soybean Meal   $6.55     $6.55
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

   

******************************************************************************

DTN offers additional daily information available free through DTN Snapshot – sign up today.
 
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN