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Futures

September 14th - Midday Market Commentary

09/14/2021
September 14th - Midday Market Commentary

Grains are mostly higher at midday:

Dec Corn + 6 cents/bu (5.19)

Nov Soybeans -2 cents/bu (12.82 ¾ )

Dec Chi Wheat + 12 ¾ cents/bu (6.99 ¾ )

Cdn $ -0.00020 (78.92 cents)

WTI Crude Oil  -0.27/barrel (70.18)

Statistics Canada released their September estimate of Canadian grain production earlier this morning (see below).  Overall, production levels were quite a bit lower than the average trade guesses, with canola coming an at a whopping 718,000 tonnes lower than the trade predicted, barley 359,000 tonnes lower than thought, and oats 221,000 tonnes lower than expected.  The drought in western Canada decimated production, as can be seen in the size of the drop of production from 2020 to 2021.


Wheat values have been the strongest of the grains all day, with the StatCan numbers providing great support with wheat production down 38.3% in 2021.  The shockingly low canola production number allowed canola futures to trade 37 dollars higher at one point, but now canola futures are only up 11 dollars.  Because canola has such high oil content, the lower production is actually impacting soyoil futures values today, allowing prices to rally.

Other than the StatCan report, it is a very quiet day in grain markets, which is leading many analysts to start focusing on weather.  With the North American growing season quickly coming to an end, it is southern hemisphere weather that is most important now, and some analysts are beating the drum about the formation of another La Nina pattern in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean (happens when surface temperatures of the water cool).  It seems early to be talking up potential dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil, but tighter USA and global carryouts will have the market very susceptible to big moves based on how South American weather forecasts are interpreted.  Today, those forecasts are moderately friendly.

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