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October 7th - Closing Market Commentary

10/07/2021
October 7th - Closing Market Commentary

Grains closed mixed on Thursday:

Dec Corn + 1 ¾ cents/bu (5.34)

Nov Soybeans  + 5 ¼ cents/bu (12.47 ¼ )

Dec Chi Wheat – 4 ¾ cents/bu (7.41 ¼ )

Cdn $ +0.00235 (79.65 cents)

WTI Crude Oil  +0.87/barrel (78.30)

Grains traded higher in the overnight session, but struggled out of the gates in the day session before finding some solid footing (particularly soybeans) later in the day.  Brazil raised it’s estimates of his 21/22 crop, as it estimated total corn production at 116.3 million tonnes (acreage up 4.75%).  This is a huge increase from the La Nina impacted 2020/21 corn crop, which is estimated to be 86 million tonnes.  However, it is slightly smaller than the USDA September estimate of 118 million tonnes.  Brazil’s 2021/22soybean crop is projected to be 140.75 million tonnes (planted area up 2.5%), versus the most recent USDA September forecast of 144 million tonnes.

Beans were the star performer today, despite concerns over the slow pace of Chinese export business.  The soy complex saw soyoil rally by 1.70 cents/pound, as continued ideas of huge demand for soyoil in biodiesel production in the USA supported the market.  Despite sluggish export demand, the reality of multiple new crush plants coming on line in America in the coming months has many traders/analysts believing that downside risk is limited for soybeans.

Wheat prices struggled a bit today due to weak sales in today’s USDA Weekly Export Sales Report, and the fact that forecasts show beneficial showers falling in the US Plains and Pacific Northwest over the next 15 days.

This morning , the USDA released it’s Weekly Export Sales Report for the week ended Thursday, September 30th.  Sales were generally good, beating the highest trade guess for corn, and near the top end of expectations for soybeans.  China was the largest buyer of soybeans last week @ 671,000 tonnes (24.7 million bushels), while Mexico was the largest buyer of corn @ 801,000 tonnes (31.5 million bushels).  Actual sales data is listed below, in thousands of tonnes:


This morning, the USDA announced a couple of Flash Export Sales to Mexico, one for 261,264 tonnes (9.6 million bushels) of soybeans, and another for 314,256 tonnes (12.4 million bushels) of corn.

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