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Futures

October 18th - Closing Market Commentary

10/18/2021
October 18th - Closing Market Commentary

Grains closed higher on Monday:

Dec Corn + 7 cents/bu (5.32 ¾ )

Nov Soybeans + 3 ¾ cents/bu (12.21 ½ )

Dec Chi Wheat + 2 ¼ cents/bu (7.36 ¼ )

Cdn $ +0.00050 (80.795 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.16/barrel (82.44)

Grains shook off early morning weakness attributed to weekend harvest hedge pressure along with no USDA Export Flash Sales reported today, and ended the day with a nice rally.  Export shipments last week (see below) were good, and that fact coupled with rising export grain bids allowed prices, particularly corn, to end near their highs for the session.  We are starting the week with many analysts re-focusing on how crop input prices have soared higher, and the fact that it will be much more expensive in 2022 for a grower to producer his crop than it was in 2021.

Technically, the market tested some critical moving day averages in corn, soybeans and wheat last week, and after bouncing off of those prices to end the week, it feels the like market is trying to probe resistance levels to the upside to start this week.

This morning, the USDA released their Weekly Export Inspection Report, showing higher than expected shipping last week for both corn and soybeans.  Wheat exports however were dismal.  Of the 84.4 million bushels of soybeans exported, 62.9 million bushels were shipped to China.  Of the 38.4 million bushels of corn exported, 5.6 million bushels went to China.  No wheat was shipped to China.  Export inspection data is listed below:


The USDA released their Weekly Crop Condition Report after the close today, with the trade expecting corn harvest to be 54% complete and soybean harvest to be 62% complete. 
Harvest progress was not as big as expected in the last week, with the government indicating today that 52% of the corn is off and 60% of the soybeans are in the bin.  Corn conditions remained unchanged at 60% good/excellent, while there was no soybean rating given due to the high level of harvest progress.  Winter wheat was shown to be 70% planted, which is close to the 5 year average, but down from the trade expectation of 73% planted.  The planting of the soft red winter wheat crop in the eastern Corn Belt is well behind normal (surprise, surprise).  That should be supportive to Chicago futures going forward.  Below are maps showing individual State harvest and wheat planting progress:





On the day today, funds were thought to have been buyers across the board, picking up an estimated 7,000 corn contracts (long 222,000), 2,000 soybean contracts (long 33,000), and 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts (short 6,000).

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