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October 11th - Morning Market Commentary

10/11/2021
October 11th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are slightly higher in overnight trading:

Dec Corn + 1 cent/bu (5.31 ½ )

Nov Soybeans + 3 cents/bu (12.46)

Dec Chi Wheat + 4 ½ cents/bu (7.38 ½ )

Cdn $ -0.00035 (80.215 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +2.52/barrel (81.87)

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Grains started the night session in negative territory, with soybeans trading down as much as 7 cents/bu and corn trading down 1 ½ cents/bu.  However, grains are currently all on the positive side of the ledger.  Support comes from extremely strong crude oil prices this morning.  Oil markets are showing tremendous technical strength, as open interest has risen 11% in recent weeks, with speculative money pouring into oil futures.  As long as crude oil and petroleum prices stay strong, that will support grains, as it increases the profitability in the production of biofuels.

While soybean prices are slightly higher this morning, values are still just marginally above the 9 month lows set on Friday. 

Harvest progress in the US Midwest will be hampered by heavy rains that fell in various parts of the Corn Belt over the weekend.  Rainfall events look heavy over much of the Midwest for the start of this week, before sunshine returns until the 11 to 15 day forecast window.  Central Brazil was wet over the weekend, with more of the same forecast for this week.

Trade volumes are expected to be light today, as traders balance their positions ahead of tomorrow’s USDA October Crop Report.  Anecdotally, early harvest yield reports suggest the potential for a rise in bean yields, while a slight cut to corn yields would not surprise many.

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