Grains had a rough day:
July Corn -19 1/4 cents/bu (7.81 1/2)
July Soybeans -15 ¼ cents/bu (16.62 3/4)
July Chi Wheat -46 3/4 cents/bu (12.30 3/4)
CDN $ -0.00300 (77.64 cents)
WTI Crude Oil -2.81/barrel (109.59)
Outside markets dragged down grains today as there were no positive (and significantly-sized) grain or oilseed news stories. Overall, the trend of the grain complex remains fairly optimistic with solid demand and global supply fears. With the delayed corn planting in the U.S., there is evidence that it could lead to smaller yields. The USDA has already shrunk their yield forecasts down 4bu/acre to 177bu/acre. In a year with Ukraine-Russia tensions putting supply up in the air, this has the potential to be the cherry on top of the questionable supply story.
Prevent plant conversations are beginning to mount as planting pace, especially in the Northwest corn belt, remains slow and we creep closer to the prevent plant dates. Essentially, once that date has passed, farmers can collect their insurance if crops could not be planted by a certain date. Whether or not farmers plant from that point on becomes questionable, so it is an important story to watch. In the crop progress report released on Monday, only 4% of North Dakota’s corn had been planted. That means there are a lot of potential acres that will not follow through with what was intended to be planted in them. That being said, at the price of commodities, there is a significant incentive to plant, plant, plant.
Weather models for the upcoming week are predicted to bring rains into the eastern corn belt, stalling planting once again.
Germany was reported to have highlighted their attempt at eliminating food oils in their biofuel production by 2030. This is concerning for soybeans and all edible oils if this trend continues across the EU.
Amid the Ukraine-Russia war, Russia seems to be capitalizing on the chaos and increasing their amount of world wheat exports. It is estimated that the country could account for 20A% of the world wheat exports in 22/23 which would be around 39-41 million tonnes.
No number has been announced yet regarding wheat yields from today’s leg of the Kansas Wheat Tour. They were hitting some drier areas of the state today, so it will be interesting to see how that affects their yield estimates.
In exciting general Agriculture news, Bill C234 was adopted at the 2nd reading in the House of Commons today. If you aren’t familiar, this Bill would amend the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act to provide relief to farmers for critical economic practices like grain drying and heating barns that have no viable fuel alternative. This doesn’t mean the change is going into effect yet, there are still many steps to go, but it is a very positive step forward!
Funds were thought to have been all sellers today as traders engaged in profit taking.
Megan McGrail, Grain Merchandiser
Wanstead Farmers Co-operative
519-845-3301
meganm@wansteadfarmerscoop.com