Grains are mostly lower:
July Corn -3 ¼ cents/bu (8.06 1/4)
July Soybeans + 1 cents/bu (16.57 1/2)
July Chi Wheat -13 3/4 cents/bu (12.33 3/4)
CDn $ +0.00070 (77.940 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +0.23/barrel (114.43)
Good morning!
Market news was quiet through the night, but markets have the potential to be very volatile today after yesterday’s huge swings (especially in wheat).
Upon open this morning, we expect the market to be revved and ready to react to The Crop Progress and Conditions Report which was released after the close last night. Overall, crop planting progress did not reach 5-year averages which may be seen as bullish despite a large bearish increase. Since this report was released after the market close, grains will be ready to react to this story overnight and tomorrow morning. In addition to slow planting, corn emergence is being shown as very sluggish which could be an early sign of greater problems with the crop (14% compared to 32% average).
Corn: 49% Planted (22% Last Week, 78% Last Year, 67% Average) – North Dakota’s planting progress is a measly 4% and some of these areas are running low on time.
Soybeans: 30% Planted (12% Last Week, 58% Last Year, 39% Average) -North Dakota is once again bringing down the average
Winter Wheat: 27% Good/Excellent (29% Last week, 47% Last Year, 51% Average)- Texas is weighing that crop down
Spring Wheat: 39% Planted (27% Last week, 83% last year, 67% average)- North Dakota is once again slow and they were expected to plant 46% of the U.S. spring wheat acres this year… those might be up in the air now.
The India wheat export ban news continues to hang around as traders continue to digest what this means for global supply. Yesterday, July wheat futures hit limit up today amid the India wheat story. This means that limits will be expanded today to $1.05 up from $0.70. In case you weren’t around yesterday for the news, India announced a ban on wheat exports out of their country after a heat wave damaged some of the growing crop. India announced that they are keeping all domestic wheat within the country to support food security and try to cope with high inflation. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, India has picked up much of the slack as the exports slowed out of the Black Sea region. With this pattern, the USDA estimated the country exporting a record 8.5 million mt in the 22/23 crop year- which is EXTREMELY overexaggerated now. (This year their exports grew from 2.6 million mt to 8 million mt). This decrease on available global supply has greatly boosted wheat futures as the trade digests this news. On the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, Hard Red Wheat futures soared to their highest price in over 14 years amid India’s export ban news. One “hole” in this export ban that traders seem to be avoiding is that the government of India is still prepared to allow exports back by previous issued letters of credit, as well as to countries that request supplies “to meet their food security needs”. This means that the export pipeline out of India is not completely closed, but it is still limited. Whether or not these holes lead to some pull back today is up in the air.
Megan McGrail, Grain Merchandiser
Wanstead Farmers Co-operative
519-845-3301
meganm@wansteadfarmerscoop.com