Grains rallied post-USDA Report:
July Corn + 4 1/2 cents/bu (7.93)
July Soybeans +7 1/4 cents/bu (16.14)
July Chi Wheat +30 1/2 cents/bu (11.43 ¼)
Cdn $ -0.00280 (76.735 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +1.03/barrel (106.74)
Notable USDA Report Highlights:
- USDA left U.S. old crop corn ending stocks unchanged (below av. estimate) while cutting soybean carryouts in line with expectations
- 2022/23 U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks are predicted to fall, but soybeans are expected to increase.
- Total U.S. wheat production came out lower than the trade’s estimate (1.729 billion bushels vs. 1.791 billion) – High Abandonment rates on winter wheat in Texas and Oklahoma. (Highest since 2002)
- USDA estimated Ukraine wheat production at 21.5 million mt with 10 million mt of exports, and corn at 19.5 million mt with exports of 9 million mt. (This is down 35% for wheat production and 47% for exports, and 54% and 61% for corn)
- The USDA CUT its corn yield estimate to 177 bu/acre (changes to yield have only occurred 5 times prior in the month of May) – Can probably be attributed to late planting.
- Argentina soybeans were reduced , while corn and Brazilian corn and soybeans were unchanged.
- World wheat stocks for 22/23 are well below trade expectations but corn and soybeans are well above.
Results of the “report of the hour”:
Earlier this morning, we saw an abysmal Export sales report for the week ending May 5th.
This morning we also saw a flash sale of 612,000mt of US corn to China (68,000 for 21/22 and 544,000 for 22/23). This positive news heading seemed to counteract the negative export sales as we led up to the USDA report.
10min delay on website prices