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March 4th- Midday Market Commentary

03/04/2021
March 4th- Midday Market Commentary

Grains are higher at midday:

Corn +3 1/2 cents/bu (May @ 5.38 3/4)

Soybeans + 20 1/2 cents/bu (May @ 14.28)

Chi Wheat +4 1/2 cents/bu (May @ 6.60 1/2)

Currently:

Cdn $ +0.00345 (79.48 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +3.47/barrel (64.76)

The USDA released their export sales report this morning for the week ending February 25th. Corn exports came in well under expectations, while soybeans and wheat were within estimates. Considering sub-par export sales, grain markets are performing surprisingly well. Soybeans are leading the commodities higher, as decent export sales prove as yet another reminder that we have yet to ration the limited supply of soybeans.

China was the featured buyer of U.S. corn at 41.5 million bushels (41.2 million of that was a switch from “unknown”. 12.9 million bushels of “unknown” (China??) bought soybeans were cancelled and shifted to other customers. Marketing year wheat export sales exceed the pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 12 million bushels, versus 20 million last week. Actual shipments are only ahead of pace by 8 million bushels. Marketing year export sales for corn exceed the USDA’s pace by 460 million bushels (503 million last week), but their actual shipments are lagging by 21 million bushels. Soybean export sales are also exceeding the seasonal pace at 234 million bushels (259 million last week), and their actual shipments are exceeding the pace by 337 million bushels.

Actuals

Estimates

Last Week

Last Year

2020/21 Corn

2021/22 Corn

115.9

38.8

400-800

50-250

453.3

145.9

769.2

100.0

2020/21 Soybeans

2021/22 Soybeans

334.0

199.4

100-500

0-300

167.9

70.8

345.0

1.4

2020/21 Wheat

2021/22 Wheat

219.2

23.5

100-500

0-100

167.7

14.8

542.4

28.0

Tuesday’s USDA report for supply and demand is the main attraction for traders, and is already starting to play into buying and selling decisions. The report is expected to show a continued tightening of soybean stocks, but what happens to corn is up in the air (look at the size of the estimate trade range!). Estimates are as follows:

Confirmed cases of ASF have hit Chinese pigs. This strand seems to be less lethal, but harder to test for, and just as contagious. Pork imports are on the rise, while feed demand is slowing. Will be an interesting and important story to watch and see it progress. 

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