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March 4th - Morning Market Commentary

03/04/2021
March 4th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are steady/higher in overnight trading:

Corn unchanged (May @ 5.35 ¼  )

Soybeans + 6 ½ cents/bu (May @ 14.14)

Chi Wheat – ¾ cent/bu (May @ 6.55 ¼ )

Cdn $ -0.00050 (79.09 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.22/barrel (61.50)

Grain futures are looking for direction, after 3 very volatile trading days to start the week.  Market bulls continue to point to tight USA ending stocks, and dry conditions in Argentina as reasons for the market to rally, while market bears point to the fact that grain prices are already very high, and the lack of any new Chinese buying interest for corn or soybeans as a sign that further Chinese demand for USA grains might be waning.  Unfortunately, there is not a lot of fresh news in the marketplace this morning……….traders are not expecting to see a whole lot of new business reported in this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales Report.

All eyes are pointing towards next Tuesday’s USDA March Supply and Demand Reports, which will show the government’s hand with respect to whether old crop corn and soybean carryout stock levels continue to decline.  With the amount of corn already on the books for export shipment, the USDA should raise corn export totals again in next week’s report, but the question remains whether other demand (ethanol and/or feed) will be adjusted to mute any export increases.

Below is a recap of the average trade guesses for the March report, which show expectations for only modest changes to the USA and world balance sheets:


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