Notice: Using Internet Explorer may cause some issues with loading dynamic content such as Cash Bids. Please use a modern browser such as Edge, Firefox, or Chrome.

Dynamic Weather Icon for Today's Forecast
Weather N/A

March 30th- Closing Market Commentary

03/30/2021
March 30th- Closing Market Commentary

Grain futures are lowwwwwwer to close:

Corn – 7 1/2 cents/bu (May @ 5.39 1/4)

Soybeans – 26 1/4 cents/bu (May @ 13.66 3/4)

Chi Wheat – 15 cents/bu (May @ 6.01 3/4)

Cdn $ -0.00225 (79.170 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -1.01/barrel (60.55)

Grain markets are dropping as the countdown to the March 31st USDA reports gets smaller (19 hours for the record). Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the report, many of whom are taking some risk off the table and selling off some of their long positions.

There was a flash sale this morning (on the smaller side) of 108,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2020/21 delivery. This was not nearly enough to pull corn out of liquidation.

Soyoil finished locked limit lower, encouraging a deflation in the soybean prices. There are also rumours that the December 1st soybean stocks number may have been underreported (re: transit), and that this could show up in tomorrow's numbers, making the situation very bearish. Outside commodities were also lower, which does not reflect positively for grains.

The picture below from Karen Braun shows that in the past 10 years, soybean acres have been more commonly overestimated, than underestimated, while corn acres are a mix of both. The stocks for both corn and soybeans do not seem to have any significant correlation or trend. The March reports are notorious for holding surprises, so the trade is anxious about the numbers that will be put forward. As you can see in the visual, the USDA is rarely accurate on these numbers, and yet the trade still places significant weight on these reports.

Estimates for the report are below. Only time will tell how accurate the USDA’s projections are.

Funds are thought to be all sellers with corn expected to have sold 20,000 contracts (long 346,000), soybeans to have sold 15,000 contracts (long 95,000), and wheat to have sold 10,000 contracts (short 14,000). 

Your choice regarding cookies on this site:

We use cookies to optimize site functionality and give you the best possible experience.
Privacy Policy

Your choice regarding cookies on this site:

We use cookies to optimize site functionality and give you the best possible experience.