Grains are lower to close:
Corn – 6 ¾ cents/bu (May @ 5.46 1/2)
Soybeans – 18 ½ cents/bu (May @ 14.14 1/4)
Chi Wheat – 12 ¼ cents/bu (May @ 6.12 1/2)
Cdn $ -0.00320 (79.280 cents)
WTI Crude Oil -2.62/barrel (58.56)
It was announced this morning that Japan had bought 111,000 mt (4.4 million bushels) of U.S. corn for 2020/21 delivery.
The export sales report was released this morning for the week ending March 18th. Estimates are in thousand tonnes. Corn had an expectedly good week for export sales with approximately 85% of the old crop sales going to China. Most of the sales were reflected in the flashes that we saw reported by the USDA last week. Last week’s corn sales were the 3rd highest on record, but the markets do not seem to reflect that. The 2020/21 sales now total 98% of the USDA’s full-year (ending August 31st) target sales. Soybeans were on the lower end of expectations (resulting in some liquidation), but they are also 99% sold on USDA’s current target. Whether export shipments keep up is the real question now.
| | Actual | Estimates | Last Week | Last Year |
| 2020/21 Corn 2021/22 Corn | 4481.9 144.6 | 3800-4700 0-500 | 985.9 240.9 | 1814.3 82.0 |
| 2020/21 Soybeans 2021/22 Soybeans | 101.9 65.0 | 100-450 0-200 | 202.4 0.0 | 904.3 0.5 |
| 2020/21 Wheat 2021/22 Wheat | 150-500 50-200 | 343.6 70.5 | 390.1 139.0 | 740.0 366.4 |
The Ever Given ship continues to stay lodged in the Suez Canal. Attempts to free the boat so far (past 2 days) have failed, and some people think it may take weeks before the ship is fully dislodged. This is halting hundreds of container ships, tankers, and other vessels. If this continues too long (extreme case), ships will be delayed delivering products and we may see commodity prices such as crude oil jump.
After hitting limit up earlier in the week and reaching more than 8-year highs, soyoil has now fallen limit down. Talk about volatile. Although a drop in price, soyoil is still more than double the contract price from this date in 2020. (bearish soybeans)
Corn and soybean futures are retreating on the lack of a fresh fundamental spark ahead the USDA’s March 31 estimates of quarterly stocks & spring planting intentions. The report is still 6 days away but traders are anxiously waiting and adjusting their position. Wheat was lower today amid favourable U.S. weather and cheaper Russian and Argentine wheat. Coupled with those factors, crude oil and the outside commodity market including the USD$ was weaker today, which makes it hard for the grains as a whole to move into the positives.
Funds are expected to be all sellers with corn and beans expected to have sold 15,000 contracts each (long 340,000 and 137,000 respectively), and wheat is expected to have sole 8,000 contracts (short 13,000).