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March 25th - Morning Market Commentary

03/25/2021
March 25th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are lower in overnight trading:

Corn - 4 cents/bu (May @ 5.49 ¼ )

Soybeans – 8 ½  cents/bu (May @ 14.24 ¼  )

Chi Wheat – 7 ¼ cents/bu (May @ 6.17 ¼ )

Cdn $ -0.00040 (79.56 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -1.31/barrel (59.87)

Grains have been under pressure from the opening bell last night, as favorable global weather forecasts continue to bring sellers forward, particularly in wheat futures.  The old expression “Rain Makes Grain” is being traded this morning, as big rains this week over the bulk of the USA Southern Plains and Midwest are bolstering thoughts that condition ratings for the USA winter wheat crop are improving dramatically.  Also creating weakness in American wheat futures is the fact that Russian wheat values have tumbled dramatically this week, with prospects in the Black Sea region improve with spring rains.

Later this morning, the USDA will release their Weekly Export Sales Report, which is expected to show massive old crop corn sales, following last week’s Chinese buying spree which saw slightly over 3 million tonnes of corn purchased for shipment this spring/summer.  The big question going into this morning’s report is whether current high prices are doing enough to ration other demand, or whether other customers continue to buy as well.  Expectations for the export sales report are listed below (in thousands of tonnes):


Argentina saw scattered, light rains yesterday, though coverage will become widespread as we move into the weekend.  Brazilian rains were limited to central/west region which will move southward into the weekend.  Both Argentina and Brazil look to be dry next week, which will favor some fieldwork, but will start to bring some moisture stress to some areas of the Brazilian safrinha corn crop.

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