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March 11th - Morning Market Commentary

03/11/2022
March 11th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are lower in overnight trading:

July Corn – 7 ½  cents/bu (7.18 ½ )

July Soybeans – 19 ¼ cents/bu (16.40 ¼ )

Sept Chi Wheat – 19 ¾ cents/bu (9.89 ¼  )

Cdn $ -0.00050 (78.335 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +1.37/barrel (107.39)

Grain futures continue to be extremely volatile, as the market traded both sides of unchanged overnight in wide ranges again.  Corn has had an 18 cent/bu range, beans have had a 30 cent/bu range, and wheat has had a 60+ cent/bu range.  Corn and beans had a good day yesterday, as massive export sales coming out of the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report supported values.  Corn had it’s biggest week of sales in the current marketing year, while soybeans enjoyed their second biggest week of sales.  Wheat futures continued their struggle, as the run up in wheat futures following the Russian invasion of the Ukraine has made North American wheat uncompetitive in the global market, despite supply concerns from the Black Sea region.

This morning’s negative price action looks to be a function of profit taking going into the weekend, and a bit of a realization that prices are currently very very strong, and that fact could lead to some rationing of demand.  With yesterday’s confirmed export sales, the USA’s cumulative corn export sales deficit is now 367 million bushels when compared to last year at this time, with the USDA projecting a year over year reduction of 253 million bushels.  On the soybean front, the USA’s cumulative soybean export sales deficit to last year now sits just below 300 million bushels, with the USDA looking at a year end deficit of 171 million bushels.

Tunisia and Iran both bought wheat yesterday, but not from the USA, while Taiwan did buy 50,000 tonnes of USA milling wheat this morning.

Today, Wanstead Farmers Co-op will be rolling our corn and soybean nearby bids from May futures to July futures, and will base our nearby wheat bids off of September futures.  Corn and soybean May futures have been inverted (higher) than their respective July contracts, but basis will be adjusted accordingly, meaning that there will be little change to the net bid, other than the “normal” daily changes to futures prices.

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