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March 11th - Midday Market Commentary

03/11/2022
March 11th - Midday Market Commentary

Grains are mixed at midday:

July Corn – 3 ½ cents/bu (7.22 ½ )

July Soybeans – 13 cents/bu (16.50)

July Chi Wheat + 17 ¼ cents/bu (10.62 ½ )

Cdn $ +0.00255 (78.64 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +3.45/barrel (109.47)

Grains continue to be extremely volatile, with wheat values this morning showing the greatest movement in values.  There is no defining trend in wheat futures trade, as at times today we are seeing swings of 20 cents/bu in a matter of 2 or 3 minutes or less.  The uncertainty of what will happen in the Ukrainian war, and the impact that the war has on exporting old crop supplies and the planting of new crop in 2022 will continue to create volatility until we have greater certainty of either peace or of no 2022 planting.

This morning, the USDA confirmed the following Flash Export Sales:

  • 264,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2022/23 shipment
  • 128,900 tonnes of corn to Unknown Destinations for 2021/22 shipment

Wheat futures have been on a WILD ride since the Russian invasion of the Ukraine began.  Below is a trading chart for wheat that shows the meteoric rise in futures last week and to begin this week, and the subsequent fall in prices that we have seen since Tuesday.  What is notable on these charts is the “gaps” that exist in the chart due to markets opening limit up day after day.  Technically, the market at some point tries to fill these gaps in a trading chart, and to that end, two of the gaps made last week have been filled, with one more left to be filled.  The trade believes that if and when this gap is filled, then there will be a flood of commercial buying of North American wheat which could then provide some underlying support to the market.  In the meantime, expect the wild ride to continue.


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