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March 10th - Morning Market Commentary

03/11/2022
March 10th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are higher in overnight trading:

May Corn + 12 cents/bu (7.45)

May Soybeans + 17 ¾ cents/bu (16.88 ½ )

May Chi Wheat + 2 cents/bu (12.03 ½ )

Cdn $ +0.00155 (78.100 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +4.86/barrel (113.56)

Grains have traded both sides of unchanged overnight, again in wide ranges.  Initial weakness came from follow through selling in wheat futures, but ultimately corn and bean contracts became well supported, and wheat has recently moved into positive territory.   Corn and beans are sitting close to their highs for the session, but not after trading a 19 cent/bu range in corn, and a 36 cent/bu range in soybeans.  May Chicago wheat futures have had a $1.12/bu trading range so far in the overnight session.

Yesterday’s USDA March Supply and Demand reports failed to give the market any huge bullish surprises, and as a result, grain futures were able to sell off slightly.  However, those same reports did not have a whole lot of bearish data in them, with the possible exception of growing world wheat stocks.  Today, the market refocuses on South American production woes, and on the war in the Ukraine, and the implications that it has on old crop corn, wheat, and sunflower oil shipments and on the potential disruptions to the 2022 Black Sea growing season.

We are seeing further cuts announced this morning to Brazilian and Argentine 2022 production levels.  CONAB (Brazil’s equivalent to the USDA) has cut Brazilian bean production to 122.8 million tonnes, down from their February estimate of 125.5 million tonnes.  Corn production was left unchanged.  Meanwhile, the Rosario Grain exchange cut Argentine bean production by another half million tonnes, and cut Argentine corn production by 300,000 tonnes.

No positive developments in the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, as rumors of potential ceasefire/peace talks turned out to be just that.

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