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July 9th- Midday Market Commentary

07/09/2021
July 9th- Midday Market Commentary

Grains are mostly lower at midday:

Sept Corn – 7 3/4 cents/bu (5.29)

Dec Corn – 8 1/2 cents/bu (5.15 1/4)

Nov Soybeans + 4 1/4 cents/bu (13.23 3/4)

Sept Chi Wheat -3 1/2 (6.14 1/2)

Cdn $ +0.00325 (80.115 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +1.46/barrel (74.40)

The USDA announced a flash sale this morning of 228,600 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for 2021/22 delivery to Mexico. This is driving the soybean complex higher amid drops in corn and wheat,

The Export Sales Report was released this morning for the week ending July 1st. The results are below in thousand tonnes and they are very uneventful to say the least. Marketing year corn export sales to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 17 million bushels, after exceeding the pace by 2 million the previous week. Actual shipments still exceed the pace by 14 million bushels. Marketing year soybean export sales to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 28 million bushels, vs being short by 17 million the previous week. Actual shipments exceed the pace by 65 million bushels. Brazil's 2nd corn crop (the one we expect to be reduced in the upcoming USDA report) is the one they most heavily export, and losses there usually translate into more U.S. business. But U.S. corn sales have been historically light in recent weeks, old and new crop. So it hasn't yet produced the expected impact.

Weather continues to dominate headlines with US Midwest forecasts that continue to show good rains over the next 7 days pressuring corn and soybean futures. Overnight rains were heavy in western North Dakota, more scattered in South Dakota, and very good through all of Iowa.  Heavy rains are expected for the heart of the Midwest tomorrow, with those rains moving eastward Sunday and early next week.  Hopefully, these systems peter out before hitting Ontario, because we certainly do not need any more moisture!!!

We have the USDA July Supply and Demand Reports coming out on Monday, July 12th at noon EST, so traders are adjusting their position to get prepared for the potential volatility on Monday. 

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