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July 9th- Closing Market Commentary

07/09/2021
July 9th- Closing Market Commentary

Grains are mixed to close out the week:

Sept Corn – 7 1/4 cents/bu (5.29 1/2)

Dec Corn – 6 3/4 cents/bu (5.17)

Nov Soybeans + 9 3/4 cents/bu (13.29 1/4)

Sept Chi Wheat -3 cents (6.15)

Cdn $ +0.00500 (80.290 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +1.62/barrel (74.56)

Over the week, futures markets lost 43 1/2 cents on December 2021 corn, 57 cents on November 2021 soybeans and 30 cents on July 2021 wheat from market open on Tuesday. (Futures markets were closed on Monday). This downward pressure can be largely attributed to weather. Weather continues to dominate headlines with US Midwest forecasts that continue to show good rains over the next 7 days pressuring corn and soybean futures. Overnight rains were heavy in western North Dakota, more scattered in South Dakota, and very good through all of Iowa.  Heavy rains are expected for the heart of the Midwest tomorrow, with those rains moving eastward Sunday and early next week.  Hopefully, these systems peter out before hitting Ontario, because we certainly do not need any more moisture!!!

On the topic of rain, at Wanstead, we understand that time is of the essence for harvesting wheat, especially with next week’s wet forecast. We are working with farmers who are planning on taking tough wheat off this weekend, and we will be accepting any wheat up to 17% without any drying charges. This deal is subject to review on Monday. If you have any questions, please feel free to call our office as it will be open to serve you this weekend.

The USDA announced a flash sale this morning of 228,600 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for 2021/22 delivery to Mexico. This is driving the soybean complex higher amid drops in corn and wheat.

The Export Sales Report was released this morning for the week ending July 1st. The results are below in thousand tonnes and they are very uneventful to say the least. Marketing year corn export sales to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 17 million bushels, after exceeding the pace by 2 million the previous week. Actual shipments still exceed the pace by 14 million bushels. Marketing year soybean export sales to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 28 million bushels, vs being short by 17 million the previous week. Actual shipments exceed the pace by 65 million bushels. Brazil's 2nd corn crop (the one we expect to be reduced in the upcoming USDA report) is the one they most heavily export, and losses there usually translate into more U.S. business. But U.S. corn sales have been historically light in recent weeks, old and new crop. So it hasn't yet produced the expected impact.

We have the USDA July Supply and Demand Reports coming out on Monday, July 12th at noon EST, so traders were adjusting their position throughout the day to get prepared for the potential volatility on Monday.

The funds were thought to be mixed today with corn expected to have sold 6,000 contracts (long 196,000), soybeans to have bought 6,000 contracts (long 95,000), and wheat to have sold 2,000 contracts (short 21,000). On Tuesday, funds were also thought to have been mixed with corn 8,000 shorter than expected, soybeans 24,000 shorter than expected, and wheat was 9,000 contracts longer than expected.

Have a great weekend everybody!! 

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