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Futures

July 30th - Morning Market Commentary

07/30/2021
July 30th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are lower in overnight trading:

Dec Corn – 5 ¼ cents/bu (5.51 ¼ )

Nov Soybeans – 14 ¼ cents/bu (13.63 ¾ )

Sept Chi Wheat – 4 ½ cents/bu (7.00 ¾ )

Cdn $ -0.00030 (80.365 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -0.18/barrel (73.44)

Grains giving up some of Thursday’s gains going into the weekend.  Markets remain extremely volatile, but today’s weather will be noticeably cooler in the US Midwest, bringing with it the chance for some weekend precipitation.  While rain is on the radar, Corn Belt forecasts remain mostly dry and generally warm right to the middle of August.

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report yesterday showed net cancellations for both old crop corn and soybeans.  China cancelled 119,300 tonnes of old crop corn purchases in the past week.  New crop sales were within the range of analyst expectations.  The negative old crop export story was offset somewhat by a USDA Flash Sale announcement for new crop soybeans of 132,000 tonnes to an unknown destination (rumored to be the EU).

Yesterday’s 3rd day of the Wheat Quality Council Tour resulted in scouts projecting the North Dakota state average spring wheat yield @ 29.1 bushels per acre, the lowest on record going back to 1993.  The projected yield is down from the 5 year tour average of 43.6 bushels per acre, yet is 1 bushel higher than the current USDA projection of 28.0 bu/acre.

Rains were limited to the eastern Corn Belt over the past 24 hours, but will spread through the heart of the belt today and tomorrow before moving south on Sunday.  Dry conditions are on tap for next week, before rain chances re-appear in the 11 to 15 day.  All in all, weather looks a little less threatening this morning, and the uncertainty of whether or not the forecast rains spread into drier areas of the western Midwest has brought some sellers forward going into the weekend.

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