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July 29th- Closing Market Commentary

07/29/2021
July 29th- Closing Market Commentary

Grains are higher to close:

Dec Corn + 8 3/4 cents/bu (5.58)

Nov Soybeans + 16 3/4 cents/bu (13.77 3/4)

Sept Chi Wheat + 16 1/2 cents/bu (7.05 1/4)

Cdn $ +0.00590 (80.395 cents) ßMore basis pressure

WTI Crude Oil +1.23/barrel (73.62)

Grains rallied significantly today amid decent demand, and decreasing potential supply!!

Demand:

  1. The USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000mt of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 2021/22.
  2. The export sales report was released this morning for the week ended July 22nd. Results are below in thousand tonnes. Old crop sales were cancellations, but new crop sales were strong. China cancelled 2 more cargoes of U.S. old-crop corn in this morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending July 22nd, but bought 2 cargoes of new-crop soybeans.

Supply :

  1. Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council Tour calculated an average yield estimate of just 24.6 bu. per acre, a dramatic drop from 40.8 bu. per acre in 2019 and the five-year average of 42.4 bu. per acre. On the first day of the tour, they measured an average yield of 29.5 bu. per acre. North Dakota’s yield (top-producing state) was slashed today as they estimate the state’s yield at 29.1 bushels per acre, well below the 5-year average of 43.6 bpa. This dismal yield expectation is throttling wheat futures high, and corn and soybeans are toting up along behind it. The drought monitor is showing 99% of the Spring Wheat crop is experiencing some level of drought classification.
  2. Frost concerns in Brazil are reemerging, questioning how the country’s corn crop will do.
  1. Production estimates are falling in Russia due to dry weather. Russia’s state weather forecaster has lowered its grain crop estimate for the country by 3 MMT to 121 MMT
  2. Drought concerns persist in the key Canadian agricultural region, where yield outlooks for most crops have been downgraded this week, Manitoba government says in weekly report.  A total of 15 rural municipalities have declared agricultural states of disaster over the past month, according to report.
  3. Weather will continue to be a main factor for all grains as we move forward.  Yesterday saw some heavy thunderstorms in the northeastern Corn Belt (northern Illinois and Indiana).  Rains are forecast to fall over the weekend in a line from South Dakota through southern Iowa and Missouri.  After that, next week is expected to be dry, followed by an 11 to 15 day forecast that is dry in the western Corn Belt and wet in the eastern Corn Belt. If the corn belt turns dry, at this stage in production it has the potential to seriously diminish yield potential.

Funds were thought to have been all buyers today.

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