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July 29th - Morning Market Commentary

07/29/2021
July 29th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are higher in overnight trading:

Dec Corn + 1 ¾  cents/bu (5.50 ¾  )

Nov Soybeans + 8 ½ cents/bu (13.69 ½ )

Sept Chi Wheat + 4 ¼ cents/bu (6.93)

Cdn $ +0.00365 (80.17 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.40/barrel (72.79)

Wheat futures are leading the grains higher, as Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat futures have rallied off their lows to again trade over $9.00/bushel.  As the US Hard Red Spring Wheat Tour continues this week, anecdotal reports of extremely poor production potential has allowed futures to regain part of the recent sell off, and values now sit just 30 cents/bu below the 9 year highs reached at the middle of last week.    The spring wheat rally coincides with frost concerns in Brazil, falling production estimates in Russia, and rising wheat prices in Australia.

Corn and soybean futures are higher in sympathy with the strong wheat market, and also stronger on thoughts that the heat from the past few days will result in lower USDA Crop Condition Ratings next week.  Weather will continue to drive the bus as far as the row crops are concerned.  The rally in prices is not likely to spur much in the way of end of year old crop export sales, which will put some pressure on the USDA to lower their export sales projections in their August Supply and Demand Reports.

Yesterday saw some heavy thunderstorms in the northeastern Corn Belt (northern Illinois and Indiana).  Rains are forecast to fall over the weekend in a line from South Dakota through southern Iowa and Missouri.  After that, next week is expected to be dry, followed by an 11 to 15 day forecast that is dry in the western Corn Belt and wet in the eastern Corn Belt.

The Loonie was very strong yesterday and again overnight, as US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggested yesterday that monetary tightening could start later this year.  That had a negative impact on the US dollar, resulting in gains for our dollar. A weaker US dollar is generally good for CBOT grain prices.

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