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July 28th - Morning Market Commentary

07/28/2021
July 28th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are higher in overnight trading:

Dec Corn + 1 ¼ cents/bu (5.47 ½ )

Nov Soybeans + 7 ¼  cents/bu (13.66 ¾  )

Sept Chi Wheat + 14 ½ cents/bu (6.89 )

Cdn $ +0.00055 (79.47 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.50/barrel (72.15)

Grains traded both sides of unchanged overnight, with wheat being the overwhelmingly strongest grain in the evening session.  Wheat was showing double digits gains when beans were trading down 5 cents/bu and corn was off by a couple of cents per bushel.  Wheat values have floundered somewhat since setting highs for the move early last week, so a bounce in values was to be expected.  Support likely coming as this week marks the start of the US Hard Red Spring Wheat Tour, a tour which is bound to confirm what USDA Crop Ratings have shown for weeks – a disaster.

No confirmation of any Chinese buying yesterday, despite rumors on Monday that buying occurred.  That lack of confirmation allowed for the sell off from early highs on Tuesday.  In the absence of export sales news, the focus of the market will be weather.  We have one more day of heat across the Midwest, before a cooling trend takes hold going into the weekend.  Those moderating temperatures will bring some chances for rain, although most precipitation is forecast to fall east and south of Iowa.  Debate continues to rage as to whether the good crops in the central/eastern Corn Belt are enough to offset crop losses further west.

Interesting side note on outside markets.  US equity indexes are unchanged this morning, and sit just below all time highs.  In the meantime, Asian equity markets are down about 10% in the last 2 days.  Mixed predictions from analysts on how that might impact North American markets, as some feel that Asian investment money might leave Asia and come Stateside, thereby supporting our equities, while others fear a “contagion” effect, leading to a sell off here.  As we all know, outside markets can have a significant impact on grain futures direction.

From a weather perspective, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin saw rains yesterday, with the rest of the Midwest dry.  Weekend rains will favor the southern Plains, with chances for some precipitation in Missouri and southern Iowa.  6 to 10 day weather maps are trending drier than yesterday, but temperatures will be cool.  The 11 to 15 day maps do show moisture returning to the eastern Corn Belt, with above normal temperatures, but the north and northwestern Corn Belt look to remain dry.

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