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July 21st - Morning Market Commentary

07/21/2021
July 21st - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are higher in overnight trading:

Sept Corn + 5 cents/bu (5.76 ¾  )

Dec Corn + 6 cents/bu (5.71 ¾ )

Nov Soybeans + 4 ½  cents/bu (13.93 )

Sept Chi Wheat + 7 ¼ cents/bu (7.07 ¾ )

Cdn $  0.00150 (78.92 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.82/barrel (68.02)

Grains continue to show strength, as the market frets about a Corn Belt forecast for the next 2 weeks that is generally warm/hot and dry.  Impacts on yields wont be known for months, but with corn now entering it’s pollination phase, dryness is always a concern.  Offsetting the strength in grains is weakness in soyoil, which is occurring as  news leaks that the Biden administration my delay their biofuel mandate announcements for 2021 and 2022.  That has the market nervous that biodiesel demand may be adversely impacted.

US Midwest weather was dry for the past 24 hours.  Minimal chances for rain through the weekend and the start of next week.  There are some chances for rain in the southern Corn Belt for early August, but other than pop up showers, there are no specific general precipitation events in the forecast, with above normal temperatures expected.

Areas in Brazil are seeing renewed frost concerns this week, which could impact the yield potential of late maturing corn.  Lots of question marks in the market regarding how small the South American corn crop could get, which should push more demand Stateside.

Grains should continue to be well supported at current levels, although any formal biofuel mandate announcements are the potential “black swan” event for the market at this time.

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