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July 16th - Morning Market Commentary

07/16/2021
July 16th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are higher in overnight trading:

Sept Corn + 2 ¾  cents/bu (5.67 )

Dec Corn + 4 ¾  cents/bu (5.61 )

Nov Soybeans + 14 ¼  cents/bu (13.94 ¼ )

Sept Chi Wheat + 14 ½  cents/bu (6.86 ½ )

Cdn $ +0.00160 (79.47 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.37/barrel (72.02)

Wanstead Farmers Co-op is currently drying our tough Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRWT) deliveries.  With our wet bins full of tough SRWT, we will be unable to accept delivery of tough Soft White Winter Wheat until sometime early next week.

Grain markets are higher based on hot/dry weather forecasts for the Plains and western Midwest for the next 10 days.  Corn has upside potential, given an already friendly Supply and Demand scenario, coupled with the aforementioned bullish weather forecast.  Some analysts are looking for December corn to retest the $6.00/bu level.  The market is also realizing that for much of the North American Hard Red Spring crop, any rains now will come too late to materially impact overall production potential.  That will shift some demand into other classes of wheat (Kansas City and Chicago), and we expect to see speculative money continue to flow into the entire wheat complex as a result.

Locally, we are seeing some companies adjust their discounts for sprouted wheat significantly.  The Canadian Grain Commission allows 2.5% sprouted wheat in a Grade 2 soft winter wheat.  The tolerance for sprout in a Grade 3 is 2.6 to 8%.  The Wanstead Farmer Co-op discount for Grade 3 soft red winter wheat account sprout is $10/mt.  For the time being, we are leaving our sprout discounts unchanged, but depending on how quality changes later  in harvest, there could be some changes.  However, we are seeing that the Sarnia terminal has introduced sprout discounts as follows (irrespective of grade):

                2.6 – 5%               $10%

                5.1 – 8.0%           $25%

                8.1 – 10.0%         $35%

                10.1 – 15.1%       $45%

                Higher                   $50 or subject to rejection

The Co-op is continuing to offer our drying charge holiday on wheat deliveries up to 17.0% moisture (shrinkage still applies).  This program was instituted to encourage growers to preserve quality of their wheat by harvesting it before it was fully dried down.  Thankfully, many of you have taken advantage of the program.  With moisture levels falling off dramatically, we are re-evaluating how long the program stays in place.  It is definitely in place for the balance of today, but there are no guarantees as we head into the weekend.  We will post any changes in our commentaries later today and update the website accordingly.

Rains fell in the southern Corn Belt overnight and that continues this morning, with precipitation limited to the south and the east through the weekend.  6 to 10 day forecasts are dry for the entire Midwest, with close to normal precipitation expected in the 11 to 15 day window, except for the Northwest, which will continue to be very dry.

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