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July 15th - Morning Market Commentary

07/15/2021
July 15th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are mixed in narrow overnight trading ranges:

Sept Corn – 1 ½  cents/bu (5.66 ¾  )

Dec Corn – 2 ¼ cents/bu (5.56 ½ )

Nov Soybeans + 2 cents/bu (13.85 ¼ )

Sept Chi Wheat + 1 ½ cents/bu (6.55 ¾ )

Cdn $ -0.00165 (79.77 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -1.30/barrel (71.83)

Trade volumes are light in CBOT grain futures, as the market wrestles with tremendous crop production potential in the central and eastern Corn Belt versus concerns in the western Corn Belt, particularly the NW section including the Dakotas and western Minnesota.  Some showery activity has helped areas of the western Corn Belt in the past week, but a drier forecast for that region, with above normal temperatures for the rest of July has analysts wondering how production declines in the west will affect over all national average yields.

Brazilian FOB corn prices rallied yesterday to levels above those offered out of the USA, as Brazil is rumored to be out of corn for export.  There was a rumor of Brazil buying up to 20 cargoes of Argentinian corn yesterday.

Grain markets may be feeling a little pressure this morning on the fact that rain is falling in much of the central and eastern Corn Belt, but we would expect that market to focus more and more on the hot and dry extended forecast as the day goes on.  At any rate, as these extended forecasts verify, we expect to see strength in grains. 

Locally, we saw a flurry of wheat harvesting last night, as moisture levels in the wheat turned out to be much lower than most of us expected.  Some regions of our draw area saw producers actually harvesting dry wheat by the end of the day!!  Wanstead Farmers Co-op is continuing to waive drying charges on wheat deliveries up to 17.0 per cent, as we try to encourage growers to harvest in order to protect quality.  We wont be offering that special on heavily sprouted wheat, as that product will likely have to move into the feed market.  Unfortunately, the next forecasted rain event will likely mark the end of the holiday in our drying charges.

Showers and severe thunderstorms occurred mostly in Iowa and surrounding States last night.  A line of showers remains from SW to NE across the Midwest with an active pattern throughout the weekend, with accumulations lightest in the west and heaviest in the east.  6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day weather maps are mostly dry, with temperatures peaking in the 6 to 10 day, but staying normal to above normal in the 11 to 15 day window.  Bismarck North Dakota is forecast to endure a 7-8 day stretch where high temperatures will reach above 100 degrees, with 3 to 4 days where highs are above 105 degrees.  The historic heat reaches southward into South Dakota, east to Minnesota, and north throughout the southern Canadian Prairies.

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