Grains closed mixed on Thursday:

Sept Corn – 4 cents/bu (5.64 ¼ )

Dec Corn – 2 ½ cents/bu (5.56 ¼ )

Nov Soybeans – 3 ¼ cents/bu (13.80)

Sept Chi Wheat + 17 ¾ cents/bu (6.72)

Cdn $ -0.00625 (79.31)

WTI Crude Oil -1.48/barrel (71.65)

Our local weather forecast for today had many growers out in their fields, harvesting tough wheat, in an attempt to beat the rains predicted for late afternoon.  Thankfully, forecast storms have dissipated allowing growers to harvest all day.  Wanstead Farmers Co-op is continuing to offer no drying fees on wheat deliveries up to 17.0% moisture, with shrinkage to apply.  Wheat above 17.0% moisture will have drying costs, but at a pro-rated rate.  We have been drying soft white winter wheat, but that will cease at close of business tonight, as we have to empty the dryer and get drying the wet soft red wheat winter wheat that has accumulated over the past few days (wheat will not keep in our silos long at 20% moisture!).  We have tried to make all of our white wheat growers aware of the fact that we will be unable to receive tough white wheat for the next few days, as we dry down the soft red wheat.

Grains traded both sides of unchanged today, as optimism that recent rains have solidified overall Midwest yield potential pressured corn and soybean values late in the day, while initial strength in row crops came from ongoing debate as to how those Midwest yields will be impacted by dryness in the NW Corn Belt and northern Plains.  Drought in 90+% of the US hard red spring wheat growing areas gave strength to the entire wheat complex all day.

This morning the USDA released it’s Weekly Export Sales Report for the week ended Thursday, July 8, 2021  (listed below in thousands of tonnes).  Sales for both old crop and new crop corn and beans were disappointing when compared to levels sold in the same week last year, but mostly fell within the range of trade expectations (with tighter projected carryout stocks in 2020/21, it is only logical that sales would be smaller than last year).  Wheat sales were surprisingly strong, given that US wheat prices are considerably higher than other global exporter’s values.

The National Oilseed Processor Association released their monthly crush report for June today, and it showed that 152.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in the past month.  That number was well below the average trade guess of 159.5 million bushels, and came in a full 3 million bushels BELOW the lowest industry guess.

Crude oil came under pressure today, as rumors swirl of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates which would allow for increased OPEC production of oil to hit global markets.  Oil prices were also pressured by strength in the US dollar, as USA currency markets reacted positively to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments to Congress that suggested no need to rush the shift towards post – pandemic tighter monetary policy.  If the Loonie stays weak against the US dollar overnight, we should see a nice bump in purchase basis levels tomorrow morning.

While precipitation coverage in the US Midwest has been impressive in the last 10 days, the accumulations received have varied widely.  Most analysts would agree that over 90% of Iowa is now in good shape going into corn pollination.  That fact has lessened overall concern over the 2021 US corn crop falling below 170 bushel per acre national average, but continued dryness in pockets of the western Corn Belt and in North Dakota and Minnesota specifically means that some production risk premium needs to stay in the market.  Prices will remain volatile, but we continue to favor the upside to grain values overall.  That bias is supported by the Commodity Weather Group mid day forecasts today which showed the north/northwest Corn Belt remaining dry for the balance of July, with above normal temperatures.

On the day, funds were believed to have been sellers of 4,000 corn contracts (now long an estimated 227,000), sellers of 4,000 soybean contracts (now long an estimated 117,000), while being buyers of 10,000 Chicago wheat contracts (now long an estimated 12,000).