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July 12th- Midday Market Commentary

07/12/2021
July 12th- Midday Market Commentary

Grains are higher post report:

Sept Corn + 11 cents/bu (5.40 1/2)

Dec Corn + 10 ½ cents/bu (5.27 1/2)

Nov Soybeans + 17 1/4 cents/bu (13.46 1/2)

Sept Chi Wheat + 22 1/4 cents/bu (6.37 1/4)

Cdn $ -0.00075 (80.215 cents)

WTI Crude Oil -0.67/barrel (73.89)

Big report day with the weekly inspections report, USDA WASDE Report and crop progress report. What a way to start off the week!

The USDA WASDE Report was released at noon today and was fairly bullish overall.

Highlights:

-U.S. ending stocks were close to expectations, expect for wheat which was smaller than expected (due to drought)

-World wheat stocks were well below estimates (poor U.S. crop), while soybeans exceeded expectations (disappointing soybean exports), and corn stocks were up slightly (bigger U.S. crop)

-No changes to yield for U.S. corn and soybeans were factored in (They typically do not in this report)

-Brazil’s corn crop was decreased 5.5 million mt (analysts think this is still overstated), while Argentina’s crop was increased to 1.5 million mt

-Brazil soybean production was untouched, while Argentina’s was dropped 0.5 million mt.

The weekly inspections report was disappointing. Although inspections were in line with expectations, it was corn’s lowest weekly inspections total since January. Marketing year corn export shipments to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 3 million bushels, versus exceeding it by 14 million the previous week. Marketing year soybean export shipments to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 55 million bushels, down from 65 million the previous week. Weekly corn shipments must average 55.9 million bushels thru August to hit USDA's target, while soybeans must avg 10.4 million. Chinese corn imports need to be near 25 million, but continue to fall short.

Actual

Estimates

Last Week

10-Week Average

Corn

39.1

37.4-53.1

48.7

66.3

Soybeans

7.4

3.7-11

7.6

7.4

Wheat

15.6

8.8-16.5

13.3

18.0

The crop ratings report is to be released this afternoon after the close, and it is expected that all commodities will drop 1% good/excellent. 

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