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January 17th - Morning Market Commentary

01/17/2020
January 17th - Morning Market Commentary

Grains are mostly higher in overnight trading:

Corn + 3 cents/bu (Mar @ 3.78 ½  )

Soybeans – 1 cent/bu (Mar @ 9.23)

Chi Wheat + 1 ½ cents/bu (Mar 5.66 ¾ )

Cdn $-0.00030 (76.61 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.27/barrel (58.79)

Cereal grain prices are enjoying a small bounce higher today, as thoughts that yesterday’s drop might have been a little overdone have some traders buying corn and wheat going into the weekend.  There is no doubt that Wednesday’s release of the Phase One trade agreement document led to a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of trading mentality in the grains.  The potential for China to re-emerge as a major force in USA grain exports still remains, but the trade has taken a “show me” attitude in the wake of the report release, particularly since there is absolutely no commodity by commodity breakdown in how China will get to the prescribed dollar values of USA imports.

Meanwhile, USA equities continue to print record numbers with a week of generally good corporate earning reports, the obvious thawing of USA/China trade tensions, and the USA Senate approval of NAFTA 2.0.  Dow futures are currently up 70 points @ 29,310.

USA winter wheat winterkill concerns are on the back burner for now, as heavy rains and snow are expected to hit the southern Plains and central corn belt over the next couple of days.  Cold temperatures are expected to follow, but the insulation from the snow is expected to minimize crop damage.  Rains were received in northern Argentina and southern Brazil yesterday, but Argentina for the most part is looking drier for the next 10 days.  Brazil forecasts continue to have sufficient moisture.

There will be no midday commentary today, as I will be out of the office.  Today’s closing commentary will be late (possibly tomorrow morning) as well.

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