The grain complex is higher at midday:
Corn + 17 cents/bu (May @ 5.77 1/2)
Soybeans + 4 3/4 cents/bu (May @ 14.13 ½)
Chi Wheat + 12 3/4 cents/bu (May @ 6.29)
Cdn $ +0.00340 (79.555 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +0.02/barrel (59.79)
The USDA released their Weekly Export Sales Report this morning for the week ending April 1st. Overall, the report was below expectations, or on the lower end of expectations. We saw soybean exports slow as South American sales pick up, especially in terms of sales to China. Brazil and Argentina beans are much cheaper than the U.S., and is likely to be the primary choice for exports for the foreseeable future. The cheap cost of the soybeans is resulting in China rolling some soybean sales to new crop which is likely to continue along with cancellations for the next few months. Sales of soybeans currently sit at 2.232 billion bushels (60.5 million mt), which is 99.2% of USDA's full-year forecast. Whether the sales are realized with shipments is the real question now. Corn sales now sit at 2.617 billion bushels which is higher than the USDA’s forecast of 2.6 billion bushels.
In thousand tonnes | Actual | Expectations | Last Week | Last Year |
Corn 2020/21 Corn 2021/22 | 757.0 50.0 | 500-900 50-300 | 797.3 60.0 | 1848.9 608.8 |
Soybeans 2020/21 Soybeans 2021/22 | -92.5 338.6 | 100-400 0-200 | 105.8 131.0 | 523.5 353.4 |
Wheat 2020/21 Wheat 2021/22 | 82.0 529.9 | 100-500 50-200 | 250.1 81.0 | 258.6 117.4 |
The USDA report comes out tomorrow and is expected to show decreases in projected stocks due to an increase in exports.
Conab also released their estimates for Brazilian corn and soybean supply this morning. This means that there may be more soybeans to go around come harvest, and there will be a better supply of beans to supply the market. This is not great for soybeans who are working hard to ration demand and push prices higher.
Forecasts across the plains are very dry, with worries about the effects of the drought on the spring wheat crop. Rain makes grain, and it looks like the U.S. could use a lot!