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April 7th - Midday Market Commentary

04/07/2020
April 7th - Midday Market Commentary

Grains are mixed at midday:

Corn + 5 ½  cents/bu (May @ 3.33 ¼  )

Soybeans + 3 ½ cents/bu (May @ 8.59)

Chi Wheat -5 cents/bu (May @ 5.50 ¾ )

Cdn $ +0.00815 (71.70 cents)

WTI Crude Oil +0.25/barrel (26.33)

Row crops are enjoying a nice technical rally today, with corn initially getting a price bump from massively oversold positions.  Some decent volume buying allowed May corn futures to break through the first area of resistance @ 3.31, and a second wave of buying saw corn penetrate the second area of technical resistance in the 3.35 to 3.36 range.  Futures have pulled back from those earlier highs, but for the rest of the day, closing at or above 3.33 is critical for corn futures.  If we do manage that, technically, there should be enough short term momentum to allow the May contract to test 3.40/bu this week.  Closing below that level will have sellers try to pressure the market back below 3.31.  Soybeans also currently enjoying a bounce, after trading both sides of unchanged earlier in the session.  For the May soybean contract, 8.60 is a critical technical support level.  If we can close above that level today, then some additional buying should emerge tomorrow.

Wheat has traded in negative territory during the entire day session, although Chicago futures are currently 6 cents/bu off of their lows for the day.  Slightly better than expected USDA winter wheat crop conditions are weighing on prices today, but the likelihood of export business coming to the USA is not allowing the market to lose too much value right now.  World wheat prices are strong amid dryness concerns in the Black Sea and Argentina, and due to ongoing supply concerns emanating from COVID-19.

Stock prices are strong this afternoon, with Dow futures up 750 points @ 23,238.  The NY Stock Exchange is rallying as confidence builds that the worst might be behind New York in it’s battle against Coronavirus.  The S&P index is up 20% from it’s March lows based on current trading levels today.  The strength in American and global equities is helping ag futures, as well as other commodities today.

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