Grains are higher to close:
Corn + 14 cents/bu (May @ 5.94)
Soybeans + 20 ½ cents/bu (May @ 14.10) ßPushed back past $14 today. Great technically.
Chi Wheat + 18 ¼ cents/bu (May @ 6.48)
Cdn $ +0.00060 (79.850 cents)
WTI Crude Oil +2.97/barrel (63.15)
The second edition of our agronomy weekly update was released today! Click on the link to learn about what is going on in our area from wheat to soils! à https://conta.cc/3uQYHGm Don’t forget to subscribe to get it sent right to your inbox every Wednesday afternoon!
The EIA report was released this morning and showed that commercial crude oil stocks decreased 5.9 million barrels to 492.4 million barrels. Ethanol stocks also decreased 100,000 barrels to 20.5 million barrels. Ethanol production decreased 34 thousand barrels per day to 941 thousand barrels a day. Ethanol production utilized an estimated 92.2 million bushels of corn last week, down from 95.6 million the previous week, but up from 56.9 million in the shutdown a year ago. Corn usage to date for ethanol production totals an estimated 2.979 billion bushels, down 202 million or 6.3% from the previous year's pace, and down 41 million bushels from the longer-term seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target.
The acreage battle between soybeans and corn remains tight. Soybeans are trying to keep pace with corn, but they are losing against it as a ratio. Since April 6th, the SX/CZ ratio has moved from 2.62 to 2.47 (the market feels like it should buy more corn acres than bean acres). In reality, soybeans cannot afford to lose any acres to corn if it wants to return to a semi-comfortable carryout level.
China’s Ministry of Ag put out an announcement today that acknowledged its stripe rust problem as “severe.” Considering they have not admitted yet that ASF is a reemerging problem in China, we can only assume that this is very drastic and it will result in reduced yields for wheat. This is bullish for the wheat market! Wheat is also boosting higher amid cold weather in the EU, and the arid conditions in the Dakotas.
Cool weather is expected to move into the U.S. corn belt (and Lambton County) throughout the next couple weeks. This will delay planting as soil conditions will be unfit and extremely cool.
New contract highs for May Corn are exciting the fundamental market! May corn futures edged up on 6, falling short by just 2 ¼ cents before fading slightly lower to close.
Tomorrow we will see the March NOPA report, as well as the export sales report for the prior week. The NOPA report has potentials to show a record March crop, so not realizing this may lead to volatile drops. The export sales report is not expected to be extraordinary. Sales have been lower since the exports in Brazil ramped up which is not uncommon for this time of year. The export sales report estimates are below in thousand tonnes.
Funds are thought to be all buyers with corn expected to have bought 18,000 contracts (long 446,000), soybeans to have bought 15,000 contracts (long 144,000), and wheat to have bought 13,000 contracts (long 12,000).